On Peace

Mary Speck on China’s Search for Inroads into Central America

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 12 Mar 2025 15:41:20 +0000

China has ramped up its engagement in Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador so that it can “operate in the United States’ backyard,” says USIP’s Mary Speck. However, China “likes to give showy gifts, but hasn’t really invested” in what the region needs to address governance issues, economic instability and organized crime.

Jason Tower on How China-Backed Scam Groups Threaten U.S. Interests

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 05 Mar 2025 20:11:45 +0000

Transnational scams based out of Southeast Asia are increasingly targeting American citizens in a trend that is being “increasingly compared to fentanyl in terms of the impacts on the U.S.,” says USIP’s Jason Tower, adding that since the crime syndicates have close ties with China, we should be “pushing China on this issue to hold it accountable.”

Dean Cheng on China’s Bid for Dominance in Space

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 25 Feb 2025 18:19:14 +0000

As China works to establish “a space Silk Road” through space partnerships in Africa, “There is real reason to question whether Chinese behavior in space is going to be similar” to Beijing’s current disregard for international laws around issues such as maritime territorial claims and intellectual property rights, says USIP’s Dean Cheng.

Daniel Markey on U.S.-India Ties in the Year Ahead

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 18 Feb 2025 18:02:52 +0000

U.S.-India relations under the new Trump administration “got off to a decent start” with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington, D.C., last week, says USIP’s Daniel Markey, who added that while there is some friction over looming tariffs, the U.S. approach to trade and defense seemed to be “music to India’s ears.”

Joseph Sany on the Rwanda-DRC Conflict and the Risk of Regional War

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 12 Feb 2025 19:41:35 +0000

After decades of poor governance, ethnic tensions and illegal resource exploitation in the mineral-rich eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwandan-backed rebels’ capture of Goma “has the potential to bring … seven countries into [the] conflict” and ignite a wider regional war, says USIP’s Joseph Sany.

Andrew Scobell on China’s Approach to Conflict

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 05 Feb 2025 16:06:00 +0000

As the U.S. prepares for “continued stormy weather” in its relations with China, it’s important to remember that while Beijing’s escalatory actions remain below the threshold of outright conflict, Chinese leaders “think about war and peace as being on a continuum,” says USIP’s Andrew Scobell.

April Longley Alley on the Houthis’ Reaction to the Gaza Cease-fire

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 29 Jan 2025 18:03:24 +0000

With the cease-fire in Gaza, Yemen’s Houthis have halted their “near daily” attacks on Israel. However, the Houthis have made clear that “this is a very tenuous pause,” says USIP’s April Longley Alley, adding: “They view [Gaza] as part of a larger struggle … this is going to be a medium- and long-term threat.”

Robert Barron on the Next Phase of the Israel-Hamas Cease-fire

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 22 Jan 2025 21:54:54 +0000

With phase one of the cease-fire underway, the next major question to be answered is: “What would fill [the] governance void in Gaza going forward,” says USIP’s Robert Barron, adding that the Trump administration might consider “a new version of the Abraham Accords that has a Gaza component.”

Looming Security Challenges for the Trump Administration

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 21 Jan 2025 14:16:45 +0000

A presidential transition can be “a moment of vulnerability for the United States,” says USIP Board Chair John Sullivan. But good communication and critical developments in the global landscape “have opened up avenues where real progress can be made” in places like the Middle East, says former Admiral Gary Roughead.

Dean Cheng on China’s Geopolitical Vision and Implications for the U.S.

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 21 Jan 2025 14:14:57 +0000

As U.S.-China tensions ratchet up along economic, political and technological fronts, effectively countering Beijing means “understanding [their] mindset,” says USIP’s Dean Cheng. “When we talk about the Chinese having a long-term plan, we’re not talking one year or two years, we’re talking decades.”

Michael Bruhn on How Peaceful Transitions Help Ensure U.S. National Security

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 14 Jan 2025 18:44:28 +0000

Amid rising conflict, strategic rivalry and other alarming global trends, “instability has become somewhat of the new norm,” says USIP’s Michael Bruhn. But USIP’s Passing the Baton event offers a chance for incoming and outgoing national security officials to show that the U.S. “doesn’t skip a beat” when it comes to meeting these challenges.

Ambassador John Sullivan on U.S. Security in an Era of Strategic Competition

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 13 Jan 2025 15:49:27 +0000

As the incoming administration prepares for “the enormity of the tasks that they [will be] confronting,” USIP’s Passing the Baton event offers a chance for national security leaders from across the political spectrum to discuss critical foreign policy challenges, says USIP Board Chair Ambassador John Sullivan: “It’s in everyone’s interest and our national interest.”

Keith Mines on Venezuela’s Ongoing Post-Election Turmoil

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 08 Jan 2025 16:01:19 +0000

Baring a “tipping point” sparked by mass demonstrations against President Nicolás Maduro’s inauguration this week, “a grand bargain between the opposition, the regime and the United States … is what many people think is the only thing that can work” to bring stability back to Venezuela, says USIP’s Keith Mines.

Donald Jensen on the War in Ukraine’s Trajectory

U.S. Institute of Peace — Fri, 03 Jan 2025 21:11:51 +0000

As Ukraine considers the “political loaded” question of whether to lower the age of military mobilization, Putin increasingly sees the war “not just as a land grab, but as a civilizational battle between Russia and the West,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen, adding: “We should not think that the war is anything close to being settled.”

Mona Yacoubian on the Regional Reverberations of Assad’s Fall

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 18 Dec 2024 17:56:43 +0000

The fall of Assad is “nothing short of a tectonic shift in power” across the Middle East, with Iran emerging as “the biggest loser” and Turkey “positioned to be a big winner,” says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian. But “the situation is going to bear very close watching … the stakes in Syria aren’t just regional, they’re global.”

Mona Yacoubian on the Challenges Awaiting a Post-Assad Syria

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 10 Dec 2024 15:45:40 +0000

After the “stunning” collapse of the Assad regime, “the geostrategic stakes [in] Syria couldn’t be higher,” says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian. The question now on everyone’s mind is “Who rebuilds Syria? … The process [should] be Syrian-led and Syrian-owned.”

Thomas Sheehy on the Geopolitical Impact of Biden’s Trip to Angola

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 10 Dec 2024 12:45:51 +0000

President Biden’s recent trip to Angola sought to offer African countries a U.S.-led alternative to China’s dominance in the critical mineral sector, says USIP’s Thomas Sheehy: “The hope is that we can operate in the same environment [as China] and raise the standards and ultimately have Africans expect higher standards” from international investors.

Brittany Croll on Balancing Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Security

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 03 Dec 2024 19:51:22 +0000

When it comes to meeting the world’s growing energy demands without furthering carbon emissions, there is room for a “both-and” approach that safely expands nuclear power while still advancing nonproliferation, says USIP’s Brittany Croll: “There really is an interest and need for robust cooperation.”

Andrew Cheatham on the Global South’s Impact at the G20 Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 26 Nov 2024 16:57:04 +0000

While the outcomes of the recent G20 summit in Brazil can be seen “as a glass half full or a glass half empty,” perhaps the most noteworthy takeaway from this year’s proceedings was “the Global South having a bigger and bigger voice in global issues,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham.

Georges Fauriol on the Ouster of Haiti’s Interim Prime Minister

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 18 Nov 2024 20:22:40 +0000

In firing the country’s interim prime minister, Haiti’s transition presidential council “generated a fair amount of concern” over whether the country could stabilize governance to meet the timeline for elections in early 2026, says USIP’s Georges Fauriol, adding: “The outlook doesn’t look all that positive.”

Thomas Sheehy on Mozambique’s Post-election Upheaval

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 13 Nov 2024 21:07:03 +0000

While the “very volatile situation” in Mozambique is nominally in response to October’s presidential election, “it’s been several years in the making,” says USIP’s Thomas Sheehy, adding “what we’re seeing [there] is what we’re seeing elsewhere in Africa … a dissatisfaction with the ruling party.”

Dean Cheng on What China’s Pressure on Taiwan Means for the Region

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 05 Nov 2024 17:53:22 +0000

As Beijing ratchets up military pressure along the Strait, Taiwan remains “the one area where we are most likely to see … a direct confrontation between the United States and China” because a conflict “would affect a lot of our allies [like] Japan, South Korea and the Philippines,” says USIP’s Dean Cheng.

Mona Yacoubian on the Middle East’s Dangerous Escalation Dynamic

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 30 Oct 2024 14:28:19 +0000

Amid the latest exchange of strikes between Israel and Iran, the Middle East is “a region that really is on fire,” says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian. “There are no guardrails anymore … all of these different players are testing and probing each other to see what they can get away with. And that’s where the danger lies.”

Steve Hege on Restorative Justice and Colombia’s Search for Missing Persons

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 21 Oct 2024 19:51:23 +0000

More than 100,000 Colombians have been forcibly disappeared over the last six decades. Finding their remains is “tremendously healing” and can “repair the social fabric” by giving closure to the victims’ loved ones and allowing former armed actors “to regain their own dignity” by contributing to the process, says USIP’s Steve Hege.

Andrew Wells-Dang on Youth’s Role in the Future of U.S.-Vietnam Reconciliation

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 16 Oct 2024 20:31:10 +0000

The legacies of the Vietnam War were once an obstacle to U.S.-Vietnam relations. But today, addressing those legacies has become “key foundation” for bilateral cooperation, says USIP’s Andrew Wells-Dang. And as ties continue to grow, youth from both countries “have a new vision for how our countries can work together.”

Osama Gharizi on ISIS’s Lingering Presence in the Middle East and Beyond

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 07 Oct 2024 20:27:36 +0000

The Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS recently recommitted itself to fighting the remnants of the Islamic State “not just as a group and an entity,” says USIP’s Osama Gharizi, “but also dealing with the factors that gave rise [to it]” and the legacies it left behind — like the process of repatriating those who lived under its rule.

Ambassador William Taylor on Ukraine’s Refusal to Cede Territory to Russia

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 03 Oct 2024 10:38:04 +0000

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech at the U.N. General Assembly made clear that Ukraine will not give up claims to territory. “Even if they don’t get [the land] all back right away, they will eventually get it back,” says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor, which will leave Putin with “no choice but to look for a way out.”

Andrew Cheatham on the U.N.’s ‘Pact for the Future’

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 24 Sep 2024 13:31:37 +0000

After dealing with “growing cynicism and lack of participation” in recent years, the U.N. General Assembly opened this week by adopting the Pact for the Future, which represents commitments from 193 countries to “really reform global governance as we know it,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham.

Gordon Peake on the Pope in Southeast Asia and the Pacific

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 16 Sep 2024 20:38:21 +0000

During his 10-day trip to the region, the pope used “straight, plain-spoken language” while discussing pressing issues — such as climate change in Indonesia and violence against women in Papua New Guinea — in the hopes of spurring change, said USIP’s Gordon Peake: “No pun intended, he has a bit of a bully pulpit in these matters.”

Keith Mines on Haiti’s Recent Progress and U.S. Support for Its Transition

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 09 Sep 2024 20:56:34 +0000

With a Kenyan-led security mission and a new interim government in place in Haiti, Secretary Blinken’s visit to the country shows that “the United States has been trying hard … to take advantage of the momentum,” says USIP’s Keith Mines, adding that while there’s a long way to go, “for now, there’s something to build on.”

Dean Cheng on Jake Sullivan’s Trip to Beijing

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 04 Sep 2024 17:26:13 +0000

Details from U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan’s recent meetings in Beijing with senior Chinese officials have been scarce. But amid simmering tensions, the fact the meeting occurred at all is notable, says USIP’s Dean Cheng: “The point here, I suspect, is simply to have communications.”

Tamanna Salikuddin on What’s Next for Bangladesh's Democracy

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 27 Aug 2024 17:15:56 +0000

After protests forced longtime Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to resign earlier this month, Bangladesh’s new interim government is “seeking, at this moment, to grasp that democratic spark” and “set forward the reforms that are going lead to a new political culture” in the country, says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.

Donald Jensen on Ukraine’s Surprise Incursion into Russia

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 12 Aug 2024 20:15:35 +0000

The Ukrainian military seized a chunk of territory in the Kursk region of Russia as part of a surprise incursion that has left the Russian military in “a panic,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen, adding that Putin’s strategy until now did not “take into account that Ukraine could strike back, and they certainly have.”

Ambassador William Taylor on the Russia Prisoner Exchange

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 06 Aug 2024 10:29:23 +0000

The recent exchange of prisoners between Russia and Western countries was historic on multiple fronts. But the “coherence and solidarity” displayed by U.S. allies was what made the deal possible, says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor: “The conversations among allies were as important as the conversation with the Russians.”

Keith Mines on the Fallout from Venezuela’s Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 05 Aug 2024 19:43:59 +0000

Last week’s election in Venezuela has created a political firestorm as disputed returns have led to demonstrations and street violence. “The international community, and especially the U.S., will need to stay focused in their support for democratic change in Venezuela” over the long term, says USIP’s Keith Mines.

Andrew Scobell on the China-Philippines Agreement in South China Sea

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 31 Jul 2024 19:34:45 +0000

China and the Philippines recently struck a secretive deal to deescalate confrontations over the Second Thomas Shoal, “one of the tensest flashpoints in the western Pacific,” says USIP’s Andrew Scobell. “Nobody wants to see it escalate to war,” but the “the ambiguity [of the deal] … allows both sides to claim victory.”

Susan Stigant on Sudan’s Civil War and Deepening Humanitarian Crisis

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 16 Jul 2024 11:58:50 +0000

More than a year into Sudan’s civil war, the country is facing the “the world’s worst humanitarian crisis” as international aid struggles to find its way to those in need, says USIP’s Susan Stigant: “At this point, unfortunately, all of the efforts collectively are not meeting the needs” of Sudanese citizens.

Robin Wright on What to Expect from Iran’s New President

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 10 Jul 2024 23:57:27 +0000

The election of reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian as Iran’s new president dealt a “stunning blow in many ways to the hardliners,” says USIP’s Robin Wright. However, “the hardliners still have control of the legislature and the judiciary, and they can create havoc for the new president” and his agenda.

Dean Cheng on China’s Expanding Space Capabilities

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 01 Jul 2024 20:39:22 +0000

China’s successful trip to the far side of the moon — the first nation to accomplish the feat — is not only “great advertising” for potential technology partnerships, it’s “part of the larger Chinese space effort” that seeks to expand China’s own dual-use capabilities in space, says USIP’s Dean Cheng.

Mary Glantz on Russia and North Korea’s Deepening Cooperation

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 25 Jun 2024 15:41:00 +0000

Putin’s trip to North Korea wasn’t just about securing more weapons for his war on Ukraine — Moscow and Pyongyang signed a mutual defense pact, which could be “potentially very destabilizing for the Korean Peninsula” and “smacks a little of desperation” on Russia’s part, says USIP’s Mary Glantz.

Keith Mines on the Latest from Haiti

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 12 Jun 2024 13:36:00 +0000

While Haiti’s Transitional Council has appointed a prime minister to lead a temporary government and the Kenyan-led international security mission is expected to deploy soon, “[Haiti’s] gangs are still pretty strong,” says USIP’s Keith Mines. “There’s really going to be a fight for power … over the coming months.”

Joseph Sany on the U.S. Withdrawal from Niger

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 03 Jun 2024 20:35:31 +0000

The U.S. reached an agreement with Niger’s military junta to close two military bases in the country in what amounts to a “tactical setback” for counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel. But the closure also “forces the U.S. to review its military posture in the region,” says USIP’s Joseph Sany, adding “there may be other options."

Robin Wright on Raisi’s Death and What It Means for Iran

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 28 May 2024 19:05:16 +0000

With the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, the Iranian regime has reached “a critical turning point.” And with just two weeks until the vote to replace him, it’s important to pay attention to “not only who wins the new presidency, but how many Iranians actually participate in the process,” says USIP’s Robin Wright.

Asfandyar Mir on Balancing Counterterrorism and Strategic Competition

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 20 May 2024 20:43:12 +0000

As terror threats emanating from Afghanistan and Pakistan rise, many may see counterterrorism as a distraction from other U.S. priorities, such as competition with China and Russia. But investment in counterterrorism can work “preventively, to shield the strategic competition agenda,” says USIP’s Asfandyar Mir.

Jason Tower on the Dangerous Proliferation of Scam Compounds in Southeast Asia

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 13 May 2024 18:24:31 +0000

Chinese crime syndicates have set up sophisticated online scamming operations throughout Southeast Asia that rake in an estimated $64 billion a year. Relying on forced labor, the scam compounds “look almost like penal colonies,” says USIP’s Jason Tower, adding: “This is happening on an industrial scale.”

Dean Cheng on China’s New Military Force

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 07 May 2024 13:03:20 +0000

China’s military structure is not prone to change. But in a shocking move, Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently established a new military entity focused on “information dominance” in future wars, with many observers “left wondering what this is going to mean and why they did it,” says USIP’s Dean Cheng.

Ambassador William Taylor on the Latest U.S. Aid to Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 29 Apr 2024 18:25:45 +0000

The latest round of U.S. military aid to Ukraine will help halt Russia’s slow, grinding advance. But more long-term aid is needed to not only push back Russian forces, but to deter another future invasion, says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor. “The only way that this war is going to end is for [Putin’s] cause … to end.”

Mirna Galic on NATO’s Long-standing Engagement in the Indo-Pacific

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 23 Apr 2024 16:00:17 +0000

Contrary to China’s assertions, NATO has a long history of engagement with the Indo-Pacific. But the alliance’s deep partnerships in the region have taken on renewed importance in recent years amid Russia’s war on Ukraine and renewed strategic competition between the U.S. and China, says USIP’s Mirna Galic.

Binalakshmi Nepram on Elevating the Voices of Indigenous Peacebuilders

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 16 Apr 2024 20:43:03 +0000

As part of the first-ever Global Summit on Indigenous Peacebuilding, indigenous leaders have created a worldwide network to share knowledge and advocate for “indigenous people and indigenous processes … [to] be woven into the larger fabric” of the peacebuilding field, says USIP’s Binalakshmi Nepram.

Vikram Singh on the U.S.-Japan-Philippines Trilateral Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 09 Apr 2024 13:23:45 +0000

The United States, Japan and the Philippines are holding their first-ever trilateral summit this week. China’s “unprecedented” pressure and aggression over maritime claims will top the agenda. “There’s a fairly clear resolve … to not just let China bully its way to changing the status quo in the region,” says USIP’s Vikram Singh.

Asfandyar Mir on Why ISIS-K Attacked Moscow

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 01 Apr 2024 18:24:22 +0000

ISIS-K’s recent attack on the Russian capital was, in part, intended to assert the organization’s growing capacity to inflict terror beyond its home base of Afghanistan. “By reaching Moscow, ISIS-K is trying to signal it has the geographic reach to hit anywhere in the world,” says USIP’s Asfandyar Mir.

Angela Stent on the Terror Attack in Moscow

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 25 Mar 2024 17:15:55 +0000

While ISIS has claimed responsibility for the devastating terror attack in Moscow, Putin has baselessly tried to shift the blame to Ukraine, says USIP’s Angela Stent: “[Putin] wants to use this to increase repression at home … and also to pursue a more aggressive path in Ukraine.”

Keith Mines on the Collapse of Haiti’s Governance

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 18 Mar 2024 20:41:01 +0000

With the governing structure now collapsing, Haitian gangs “have the country in a stranglehold,” says USIP’s Keith Mines, and that the best path to re-establish stability is “to form a new transitional government that would be more inclusive, that would have better connections to the Haitian people.”

Lauren Baillie on the ICC’s Latest Warrants for Russian War Crimes

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 13 Mar 2024 17:33:47 +0000

For the first time, the International Criminal Court has charged high-level Russian commanders with crimes against humanity — showing that Russia’s assault on civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is “not sporadic, it’s systematic, it’s purposeful, it’s part of a policy,” says USIP’s Lauren Baillie.

Sameer Lalwani on INDUS-X and the Importance of Technology Coalitions

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 05 Mar 2024 16:55:30 +0000

Technology partnerships like the U.S.-India INDUS-X “are going to be critical to the U.S. being able to defend and deter rising threats in the future, including the challenge of China,” says USIP’s Sameer Lalwani. “We need the strength of our allies in these coalitions” to maintain a technological advantage.

Donald Jensen on the War in Ukraine’s Second Anniversary

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 28 Feb 2024 18:28:51 +0000

Two years on, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has turned into a grinding and costly territorial battle. And with so many major strategic questions left unanswered, “predicting [the conflict] going one way or the other is extremely difficult,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen. “A lot depends on what happens outside the battlefield.”

Thomas Sheehy on U.S. Investment in Africa’s Critical Minerals Infrastructure

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 22 Feb 2024 15:50:12 +0000

Everything from the economy to national security depends on critical minerals like cobalt — which has prompted immense U.S. investment in Africa’s mining infrastructure, says USIP’s Thomas Sheehy: “Africa is seen as a continent where we can start to very slowly move away from our overdependence on China for critical minerals.”

Tamanna Salikuddin on Pakistan’s Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 12 Feb 2024 21:59:01 +0000

Surprisingly, candidates aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats in Pakistan’s elections. But while voters “have shown their faith in democracy,” the lack of a strong mandate for any specific leader or institution “doesn’t necessarily bode well for [Pakistan’s] stability,” says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.

Keith Mines on Haiti’s Security and Governance Crises

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 05 Feb 2024 18:05:42 +0000

Haiti’s slow decline has led the country to the brink of collapse. And while the international community has offered to help, “there’s just a lot of pieces … that haven’t come together yet,” says USIP’s Keith Mines, adding: “It probably will take a stronger lead by the United States” to restore security and governance.

Joseph Sany on Secretary Blinken’s Africa Tour

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 29 Jan 2024 19:47:59 +0000

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently made diplomatic stops across West Africa to continue building U.S.-Africa cooperation. However, USIP’s Joseph Sany says, “The U.S. has to ensure that the speeches are followed by deed,” adding that “African countries will also have to play their part.”

Mary Speck on the Challenges Facing Guatemala’s New President

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 24 Jan 2024 19:11:54 +0000

Despite legal challenges, Bernardo Arévalo has finally assumed Guatemala’s presidency. Attention now shifts to whether his anti-corruption platform can make a difference in a region beleaguered by instability, says USIP’s Mary Speck: “There’s a great deal of hope that Arévalo can show that democracy actually works.”

Jason Tower on China’s Growing Influence in Myanmar

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 18 Jan 2024 19:06:59 +0000

A string of recent defeats for Myanmar’s junta has “re-energized the resistance across the country,” says USIP’s Jason Tower. But as China takes a more involved approach to the conflict, there are concerns that “growing Chinese influence might pose more of a challenge to a free and open Indo-Pacific in the future.”

Andrew Scobell on Taiwan’s Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 08 Jan 2024 20:16:10 +0000

The United States and China are watching closely as Taiwan prepares for elections on January 13. But while the stakes are high, USIP’s Andrew Scobell says there is a relative consensus among candidates regarding Taiwan’s foreign policy: “Whoever wins the election, we’re likely to see much more continuity than change.”

Susan Stigant on the Recent Crises in the Red Sea

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 02 Jan 2024 20:33:23 +0000

While the U.S. tends to separate its policies on Africa and Middle East, USIP’s Susan Stigant says recent crises in the Red Sea highlight that “this is really an interconnected space” that currently lacks “any infrastructure … that connects together those who are making decisions” along the sea’s eastern and western shores.

Mark Feierstein on Venezuela’s Recent Push to Claim Part of Guyana

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 20 Dec 2023 20:49:21 +0000

By intensifying Venezuela’s claim to resource-rich territory in neighboring Guyana, the Maduro regime is “trying to link this international dispute with his own domestic politics” in order to “whip up nationalist sentiment” ahead of 2024 Venezuelan elections, says USIP’s Mark Feierstein.

Kathleen Kuehnast on a Survivor-Centric Path to Ending Sexual Violence in War

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 14 Dec 2023 16:36:51 +0000

Conflict-related sexual violence “not just violates the physical, but the mental and social integrity of societies.” To address this crime, USIP’s Kathleen Kuehnast says we need a survivor-centered approach: “Survivors are experts, they need to be [present] at every part of our understanding and … policy-shaping.”

Gordon Peake on COP28 and Climate Financing

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 04 Dec 2023 19:45:19 +0000

As COP28 continues, it’s estimated that the world needs to invest $5.9 trillion to stave off climate change. “The big question now is … who’s going to pay for all this,” says USIP’s Gordon Peake, adding that “we also need to tamp down the use of fossil fuels” to prevent the bill for growing even more.

Andrew Cheatham on the Private Sector’s Role in Conflict Resolution

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 29 Nov 2023 22:24:39 +0000

As the international community discusses new approaches for building peace, the private sector is “increasingly a major part of these geopolitical discussions,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham, with more and more “partnerships of states and private sector corporations working together to pursue national interests.”

Priscilla Clapp on the Recent Success of Myanmar’s Resistance

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 20 Nov 2023 17:46:42 +0000

Increased coordination between various elements of Myanmar’s resistance has sparked massive gains, says USIP’s Priscilla Clapp: “In just a few weeks, the opposition forces have managed to dislodge the military from their bases and encampments” along many parts of the borders with China, Thailand, India and Bangladesh.

Kathleen Kuehnast on Preventing Conflict-Related Sexual Violence

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 15 Nov 2023 14:20:12 +0000

Last month, the U.N. Security Council echoed past assessments that not enough has been done to address conflict-related sexual violence. But researchers “have established that this particular crime of war is not inevitable,” says USIP’s Kathleen Kuehnast, and there are new strategies for “how best to address the trauma” and prevent it.

Heather Ashby on How the Israel-Hamas War Affects Russia and Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 06 Nov 2023 19:45:07 +0000

The conflict in the Middle East is helping divert attention away from Russia’s war in Ukraine. And despite rumors of peace talks, USIP’s Heather Ashby says neither side seems willing to budge: “I don’t think people should be optimistic that there will be negotiations … even with a third party trying to bring the sides together.”

Andrew Scobell on China’s Aggression in the South China Sea

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 30 Oct 2023 20:20:30 +0000

In asserting its claims in the South China Sea, Beijing “recognizes that international law is not on its side,” says USIP’s Andrew Scobell. Instead, China has resorted to gray-zone provocations against the Philippines and others that “are deliberate, on China’s part, to keep [the situation] below the threshold of war.”

Carla Freeman on China’s Belt and Road Initiative at 10

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 23 Oct 2023 20:24:11 +0000

When the ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was announced, developing countries were eager to partner with Beijing on infrastructure projects. But a decade later, “a lot of these countries are saddled with immense debt … now that the hype is over, there’s a lot more international scrutiny” of the BRI, says USIP’s Carla Freeman.

Mary Speck on Guatemala’s Protests

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 16 Oct 2023 18:31:01 +0000

President-elect Bernardo Arevalo’s electoral victory in August “has not sat well with the political establishment” in Guatemala, says USIP’s Mary Speck, and their attempts to undermine the transition have been met by popular protests led by Indigenous leaders advocating “on behalf of democracy.”

Donna Charles on Ghana’s Democracy Amid West Africa’s Instability

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 10 Oct 2023 19:55:30 +0000

Ghana represents a “bastion of democracy” in a region beset by political instability. With Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo visiting Washington, D.C., this week, the United States can deepen cooperation in a way that “really supports the U.S. message of bringing peace through democracy,” says USIP’s Donna Charles.

Keith Mines on the New Multinational Security Force for Haiti

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 05 Oct 2023 16:58:51 +0000

The U.N. Security Council approved a multinational security force to address Haiti’s rampant gang violence — but another major challenge will be the volatile political environment. “There’s a lot of work just on government capacity,” says USIP’s Keith Mines. “It would behoove the international community to buckle down and build that capacity.”

Gordon Peake on the Second U.S.-Pacific Islands Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 26 Sep 2023 17:10:17 +0000

U.S. engagement with the Pacific Islands is “still in the honeymoon phase,” says USIP’s Gordon Peake. But as President Biden hosts the second U.S.-Pacific Islands Summit, there are a number of thorny issues that Pacific Island leaders are “hoping to get practical assistance from the United States” to address.

Ambassador William Taylor on Zelenskyy’s U.S. Visit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 18 Sep 2023 18:03:32 +0000

With Ukraine’s counteroffensive making slow, grinding progress, President Zelenskyy will meet with U.S. officials this week in search of long-term assurances “that once he pushes the Russians out of his country, they won’t come back,” says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor, adding: “The ultimate assurance … is membership in NATO.

Andrew Wells-Dang on Biden’s Trip to Vietnam

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 13 Sep 2023 13:02:25 +0000

The comprehensive strategic partnership announced during President Biden’s trip to Vietnam marks 50 years of progress between the two countries and an “upgrade of the U.S.-Vietnam relationship to the highest level,” says USIP’s Andrew Wells-Dang, while adding a caveat that “it doesn’t mean Vietnam is becoming a U.S. ally.”

Sameer Lalwani on the G20 Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 05 Sep 2023 17:59:56 +0000

At the G20 summit, the United States should focus on engaging with the Global South. “A lot of these countries are worried about bread-and-butter issues,” says USIP’s Sameer Lalwani. “In the absence of U.S. leadership at an institutional level … there’s going to be other actors that fill that vacuum.”

Henry Tugendhat on the Geopolitical Impact of BRICS Expansion

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 29 Aug 2023 17:14:26 +0000

The expansion of BRICS is a significant step in the bloc’s push to counterbalance the Western-led international order. But as a consensus-based group, “the question remains to what extent will they agree on what [that] alternative world order might look like,” says USIP’s Henry Tugendhat.

Mirna Galic on the U.S.-South Korea-Japan Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 22 Aug 2023 10:19:56 +0000

While last week’s summit of U.S., South Korean and Japanese leaders may have been historic, the three countries hope “to really institutionalize trilateral cooperation going forward” through joint diplomatic and security initiatives that present “a stronger, united front” in the Indo-Pacific, says USIP’s Mirna Galic.

Dean Cheng on China-Philippines Confrontations in the South China Sea

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 16 Aug 2023 15:27:15 +0000

Tensions between China and the Philippines over control of Second Thomas Shoal have become the focal point of China’s increasingly aggressive efforts to assert dominance over the South China Sea, says USIP’s Dean Cheng: “Essentially what [China] is saying is that huge swath of ocean … is somehow Chinese waters.”

Mary Speck on Guatemala’s Watershed Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 08 Aug 2023 13:04:11 +0000

Ahead of the country’s second-round presidential elections later this month, USIP’s Mary Speck explains how judicial interference has injected chaos into the country’s democratic process. There are concerns that Guatemala’s democratic backsliding could reverberate throughout Central America. “What happens in Guatemala can affect the whole region.”

Frank Aum on the Need for Diplomacy with North Korea

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 01 Aug 2023 14:09:05 +0000

In the 70 years since the Korean War armistice, mutual deterrence has emerged as the prevailing strategy for preventing conflict on the peninsula. But USIP’s Frank Aum says “deterrence is not an end … [it’s] supposed to buy time” for diplomacy, and the West has the power to restart dialogue with North Korea.

Heather Ashby on Moscow’s Diplomatic Approach to the Russia-Africa Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 24 Jul 2023 20:00:53 +0000

After pulling out of a U.N.-backed grain deal, Russia may be looking for ways to ship more grain and fertilizers to African countries ahead of the Russia-Africa Summit. But the summit’s success is far from certain, “not only because of the war in Ukraine, but because Russia hasn’t lived up to its previous promises,” says USIP’s Heather Ashby.

Andrew Cheatham on the Resurgence of the Nonaligned Movement

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 18 Jul 2023 19:43:46 +0000

Rather than reinforce the Nonaligned Movement’s perception of a zero-sum choice between the U.S. and other great powers like China, the U.S. should work with allies to offer “a bigger package that helps serve the people and is ultimately more sustainable than what China has to offer,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham.

Donald Jensen on What the NATO Summit Means for Putin

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 12 Jul 2023 19:33:20 +0000

The NATO summit cleared major hurdles for Sweden to join the alliance and offered a consensus for Ukraine’s eventual accession. With Moscow still dealing with the fallout from Prigozhin’s recent uprising, signs indicate that “Putin is now weaker than anybody in the West thought he’d be two months ago,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen.

Mirna Galic on the Role of Indo-Pacific Partners at the NATO Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 10 Jul 2023 17:14:11 +0000

While much of the conversation at this week’s NATO summit will be focused on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the presence of NATO partners Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand “is a testament to … [NATO’s] interest in the Indo-Pacific and the focus on the challenges that China poses for the alliance,” says USIP’s Mirna Galic.

Mary Glantz on the NATO Summit and the Wagner Mutiny

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 05 Jul 2023 17:06:22 +0000

Ukraine’s potential admission into the Euro-Atlantic security alliance will top the agenda at next week’s summit in Lithuania. While it’s unlikely that there will be any clear-cut decision next week, “the opinion in the alliance is leading toward Ukraine moving faster rather than slower” in terms of joining, says USIP’s Mary Glantz. “I think history is on Ukraine’s side right now.”

Thomas Sheehy on U.S.-China Competition and Africa’s Critical Minerals

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 26 Jun 2023 18:04:13 +0000

While China “had a 20-year head start” on mining critical minerals in Africa, USIP’s Thomas Sheehy says the United States is looking to secure its own supply lines while avoiding adverse effects: “There’s a growing realization … that unless these minerals are developed in a way that works to the benefit of Africans, it’s simply not sustainable.”

Vikram Singh on Indian Prime Minister Modi’s U.S. Visit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 21 Jun 2023 13:19:02 +0000

China’s assertiveness has brought the United States and India into closer strategic alignment. But as India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives in Washington, USIP’s Vikram Singh says it’s important to remember “we’re not allies, we’re partners … The Indians feel like they have to maintain a much more balanced set of relationships” in the Indo-Pacific.

Keith Mines on the Crises in Venezuela and Haiti

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 12 Jun 2023 17:02:47 +0000

While Haiti’s and Venezuela’s political, security and humanitarian situations remain dire, there are promising regional efforts underway to address both countries’ crises. While “the U.S. is looking for someone else to take the lead” on these situations, “there are things at play that are encouraging and at some point are going to need very tangible U.S. support,” says USIP’s Keith Mines.

Mona Yacoubian on Arab Normalization with Syria’s Assad

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 06 Jun 2023 17:12:14 +0000

Many Arab countries have concluded that President Bashar al-Assad is entrenched power and that they’ll need his cooperation to address challenges like refugees and the illicit drug trade. In Washington, there is no appetite to normalize with Assad. “I think ultimately what we see is just a fundamental tension between the need for accountability and fatigue in the region,” USIP’s Mona Yacoubian says.

Carla Freeman on China’s Vision for a New Global Security Order

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 22 May 2023 20:19:22 +0000

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Global Security Initiative seeks to supplant the U.S.-led order, and it is gaining traction in the Global South. “There is a sense among developing countries that the international security order isn’t working that well for them,” says USIP’s Carla Freeman. “But none of these countries want to be forced to choose between the U.S. and China.”

Tamanna Salikuddin on Imran Khan’s Arrest and Pakistan’s Political Crisis

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 16 May 2023 14:32:19 +0000

After violent protests over his arrest, former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan was released over the weekend. However, this latest political crisis isn’t going away soon, says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin: “What we’re headed to is a clash between the very powerful military and the very popular [Khan].”

Brian Harding on Renewed U.S.-Philippines Ties

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 08 May 2023 19:59:39 +0000

Philippine President Marcos’s visit to Washington has helped usher the U.S.-Philippines relationship into “a new renaissance,” says USIP’s Brian Harding. And with growing concerns over Beijing’s influence in the Pacific, “[Marcos] is making a bet that if he deepens this relationship … that is how he’s going to deter China.”

Andrew Wells-Dang on U.S.-Vietnam Relations 48 Years After the War

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 01 May 2023 18:45:05 +0000

While U.S.-Vietnam relations have progressed remarkably since the end of the Vietnam War, “we talk about reconciliation as a long-term process … so even though we’re now almost 50 years into the post-war period, that reconciliation process isn’t complete yet,” says USIP’s Andrew Wells-Dang.

Susan Stigant on the U.S. Response to the Fighting in Sudan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 24 Apr 2023 18:09:11 +0000

As the Sudanese military and Rapid Support Forces continue fighting, the United States needs to avoid getting “caught in the trap that we’re trying to choose one [side] over the other. At the end of the day, there’s a third voice here, and that’s civilians and the Sudanese people,” says USIP’s Susan Stigant.

Dean Cheng on U.S.-China Tensions Over Taiwan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 18 Apr 2023 13:00:46 +0000

With both U.S.-China and Taiwan-China relations at low points, the United States needs to maintain unity among its multilateral partnerships, says USIP’s Dean Cheng: “China loves to play bilateral games … because 1.3 billion people in the second largest economy gives them a lot of power and influence.”

Ambassador William Taylor on Ukraine’s Spring Offensive

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 10 Apr 2023 17:55:15 +0000

While reporting and leaked files indicate that a Ukrainian offensive to expel Russian troops is in the works, USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor says Ukraine still has the element of surprise: “Everyone knows that there’s this counteroffensive coming … what they don’t know is where.”

Thomas Sheehy on Vice President Kamala Harris’ Visit to Africa

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 03 Apr 2023 17:07:09 +0000

Vice President Kamala Harris’ trip to Ghana, Zambia and Tanzania is further indication that “the U.S. is finally waking up” to opportunities in Africa, says USIP’s Thomas Sheehy. “Africans want choices, they don’t want to be dependent just on Chinese investment … they want the U.S. engaged.”

Andrew Cheatham on the 2023 Summit for Democracy

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 27 Mar 2023 16:37:20 +0000

As leaders gather for the Biden administration’s second Democracy Summit later this week, the president is working to “really push back on China’s offer” of narrow economic partnerships by “trying to make the case that you need the principles of democracy to have a good economy,” says USIP’s Andrew Cheatham.

Keith Mines on Securing Haiti’s Political Future

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 20 Mar 2023 19:27:09 +0000

President Biden recently asked Canada to lead a security force to stabilize Haiti. While neither side “wants to do this as something that just props up the [interim] government,” a lack of action “doesn’t mean 11 million people go away. It just means we’re not paying attention,” says USIP’s Keith Mines.

Mona Yacoubian on the Assad Regime’s Hold in Syria

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 13 Mar 2023 20:47:33 +0000

After 12 years of extraordinary brutality and humanitarian suffering, the Assad regime remains entrenched in Syria. With no solution in sight, there is regional momentum toward normalization as countries have “made the calculation that he’s here at least for the foreseeable future,” says USIP’s Mona Yacoubian.

Ambassador Makila James on Nigeria’s Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 07 Mar 2023 20:09:49 +0000

While Nigeria’s elections energized youth voters and avoided widespread violence, President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu won only a plurality of votes. As concerns over the results’ legitimacy mount, “a weak mandate means [Tinubu] is going to have to work very smartly to build coalitions,” says USIP’s Makila James.

Ambassador William Taylor on the Anniversary of Russia’s War on Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 27 Feb 2023 20:30:56 +0000

A year into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it’s clear that Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a strategic blunder. But any deal to end the conflict must uphold Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, says USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor: “The Russian military needs to leave. That’s got to be the key part of any peace proposal.”

Andrew Wells-Dang on U.S.-Vietnam Ties 50 Years After the Paris Peace Accords

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 23 Feb 2023 16:36:00 +0000

Fifty years ago, the accords led to the withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Vietnam, marking an important step toward a post-war settlement between the United States and Vietnam. Now, “There is a lot of cooperation on economic issues, education, security and on resolving the legacies of the war … we have a comprehensive partnership that is 10 years old,” says USIP’S Andrew Wells-Dang.

Carla Freeman on U.S.-China Strategic Competition in Space

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 15 Feb 2023 12:20:00 +0000

Amid a technological boom, space is becoming the latest front for U.S.-China strategic competition. And with only a handful of Cold War-era treaties governing it, the world "needs some new rules and norms to manage a very precious environment for the future," says USIP's Carla Freeman.

Robert Barron on the Violence in the West Bank

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 06 Feb 2023 20:04:00 +0000

After an especially violent month in the West Bank, a two-state solution seems as distant a prospect as ever — leaving many "worried that we could be witnessing a spiral" in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as no one seems inclined "to take the steps that would be required to realize a two-state solution," says USIP’s Robert Barron.

Sameer Lalwani on the Future of U.S.-India Relations

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 30 Jan 2023 19:45:00 +0000

The United States and India have a common cause in their tensions with China, as well as a "natural partnership" on technology investments, says USIP's Sameer Lalwani. But India remains noncommittal when it comes to Russia's war on Ukraine: "They've concluded that they need Russia to stick around."

Thomas Hill on the U.N. Mission in Libya

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 26 Jan 2023 17:35:00 +0000

Twelve years since the fall of Qaddafi, the United Nations' Libya mission carries the same mandate as it did in 2011. With the country still experiencing various degrees of conflict and upheaval, it's time to "re-envision what we want the U.N. to do" in Libya and create a "mandate [that] will reflect that," says USIP's Thomas Hill.

Mona Yacoubian on Russia’s Diminishing Role in Syria

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 18 Jan 2023 12:18:00 +0000

Amid military struggles in Ukraine, Russia's presence in Syria is slowly receding, setting off a series of regional shifts from Turkey, Iran and Israel that could have major ripple effects on U.S. national security interests, says USIP's Mona Yacoubian: "There are too many actors there for it be a simple math equation."

Mirna Galic on Japan’s New National Security Strategy

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 12 Jan 2023 15:32:00 +0000

President Biden will meet Friday with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida amid "a really high sense of insecurity" over North Korean missile tests, says USIP's Mirna Galic. On the agenda: Japan's new national security strategy, which features "potential for closer cooperation and integration of U.S. and Japan operations."

Ambassador William Taylor on the Future of U.S. Assistance to Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 05 Jan 2023 16:31:00 +0000

When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked Congress for more assistance, he "made the case that Ukraine was defending Europe and defending the United States," says USIP's Ambassador William Taylor. And with Ukrainians more determined than ever, such aid could help usher in a Ukrainian victory over Russia.

Donald Jensen on the Latest Wave of Russian Rocket Attacks in Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 21 Dec 2022 17:57:00 +0000

Amid the harsh Ukrainian winter, Russia has launched a slate of rocket attacks targeting Ukrainian cities. “They can’t win … so they’re just going to attack civilian targets and hope that it weakens the resolve of the Ukrainian people,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen. “But there’s no sign that’s happening.”

Joseph Sany on the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 14 Dec 2022 17:30:00 +0000

Ahead of this week's summit, USIP's Joseph Sany says the United States has shifted its approach toward the continent: "Long gone are the days where America will come and dictate solutions. This time around, we are willing to listen and support African solutions for African problems."

Andrew Scobell on China’s Zero-COVID Protests

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 08 Dec 2022 18:41:00 +0000

After protests forced China to ease its zero-COVID policies, Xi Jinping will need to weigh socioeconomic stability against his authoritarian aims, says USIP's Andrew Scobell: "You’re seeing domestically what many countries have noticed China doing beyond its borders: Being more assertive or aggressive."

Tamanna Salikuddin on Pakistan’s New Military Chief

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 29 Nov 2022 21:46:00 +0000

General Asim Munir was appointed as the new head of Pakistan's military this week — a position often viewed as the de facto leader of the country. Amid a fraught political environment, Munir's "first job is going to be figuring out what the civil-military balance is in Pakistan," says USIP's Tamanna Salikuddin.

Mary Glantz on the G20 Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 23 Nov 2022 16:30:00 +0000

The joint leaders' statement at the G20 Summit, while largely symbolic, showed that "Russia [is] a lot more isolated than perhaps we'd been led to suspect," says USIP’s Mary Glantz, adding that Russia's anti-imperialist justification for the war in Ukraine is "not getting the traction we thought it was."

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen on Israel’s Election

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 17 Nov 2022 13:44:00 +0000

A coalition involving several extreme right-wing parties has Benjamin Netanyahu poised to return as Israel's prime minister. "In some sense he owes them a debt," says USIP's Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen. "What is the cost being extracted by these right-wing parties" as the government formation process begins?

Tegan Blaine on the COP27 Climate Conference

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 15 Nov 2022 12:37:00 +0000

As COP27 continues in Egypt, USIP's Tegan Blaine says, "The one issue that is really beginning to explode this year is the issue of loss and damage" and support for poorer countries. "They weren't responsible for the cause, and they don’t have the resources to [address climate change] on their own."

Knox Thames on the Role of Religion in the Ukraine War

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 02 Nov 2022 20:46:00 +0000

Russian President Vladimir Putin invoked religion as part of his justification for Russia's attack on Ukraine, believing their shared Orthodox history would lend credibility to his ambitions. "Of course, the Ukrainians beg to differ," says USIP's Knox Thames. "It's actually strengthening Ukrainian resistance to [Putin's] aggressive actions."

Andrew Scobell on China’s National Party Congress

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 27 Oct 2022 18:13:00 +0000

Chinese leader Xi Jinping cemented himself as "clearly the most powerful ruler in China since Mao" at the recent National Party Congress. But USIP's Andrew Scobell says Xi has staked his legitimacy on delivering for the Chinese people — and sputtering economic growth poses a significant challenge going forward.

Frank Aum on North Korea’s Provocations

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 20 Oct 2022 15:12:00 +0000

The recent escalation in North Korean missile tests and military exercises is Pyongyang's attempt at gaining leverage over the United States, says USIP's Frank Aum: "They want to create a crisis in order to pressure the United States back into talks on [North Korea's] terms."

Keith Mines on Blinken’s Trip to Latin America

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 13 Oct 2022 19:03:00 +0000

Venezuela was a recurrent topic of discussions during U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken's recent tour through Latin America, says USIP's Keith Mines: "The hemisphere is looking for a new approach to Venezuela … the previous consensus of just adding more pressure and hoping for the best is breaking down."

Mary Glantz on Putin’s Escalating Threats Against Ukraine and the West

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 04 Oct 2022 18:48:00 +0000

With Ukraine making massive gains on the ground, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s escalating threats "show that [he] is getting a little bit desperate," says USIP's Mary Glantz. "He's been feeling a lot of pressure to show some victories," which has left the world "holding their breath to see what might happen."

Brian Harding on the First U.S.-Pacific Islands Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 28 Sep 2022 22:06:00 +0000

As President Biden hosts a first-ever U.S. summit with Pacific Island countries, USIP’s Brian Harding says regional leaders "have some concerns" about growing U.S.-China competition — but they would rather "talk about their own interests and needs … If you ask them, their top priority by far is climate change."

Joseph Sany on the International Day of Peace

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 20 Sep 2022 18:21:00 +0000

Ahead of the International Day of Peace on September 21, USIP’s Joseph Sany says the occasion is “an opportunity to celebrate, reflect and demonstrate our commitment” to building peace in our communities — as well as a chance to connect with millions of others through the Peace Day Challenge.

Andrew Cheatham on the Importance of the U.N. General Assembly

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 14 Sep 2022 21:10:00 +0000

Despite geopolitical tensions, the U.N. General Assembly remains important for cooperation on urgent global challenges like climate change, says USIP's Andrew Cheatham: "It's within the bureaucracy of the United Nations that a lot of countries can show leadership … If we didn’t have the U.N., I think we'd have to build it."

Sarhang Hamasaeed on Iraq’s Deepening Political Stalemate

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 07 Sep 2022 18:14:00 +0000

After recent episodes of violence, Iraq’s political stalemate continues. “Bottom line … this is a fight over power” and differing views on foreign influence, says USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed. “The Iraqi people are actually fighting for democracy. It is just the political class … that makes that a longer fight.”

Belquis Ahmadi on Afghanistan a Year After the Taliban Takeover

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 30 Aug 2022 21:12:00 +0000

A year on, the situation in Afghanistan is "looking really grim" as women and girls have lost the gains made over the past two decades and the country’s humanitarian crisis continues to spiral, says USIP’s Belquis Ahmadi. "The Taliban are trying to erase women from society."

Mary Speck on Nicaragua’s Democratic Backsliding

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 25 Aug 2022 13:53:00 +0000

With President Ortega now attacking the Catholic Church, USIP's Mary Speck says Nicaragua's democratic backsliding "has gone further than any other country" in Central America — noting the risk that regional leaders could follow Ortega’s lead after they "see what [he] has been able to get away with."

Andrew Watkins on the One-Year Anniversary of Taliban Takeover

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 16 Aug 2022 15:15:00 +0000

With “more people going hungry in Afghanistan than anywhere else in the world,” the Taliban have shown they recognize “the scope of the problems they’re facing. But they’ve also revealed … just how little they can do to grapple with the world’s worst humanitarian crisis,” says USIP's Andrew Watkins.

Asfandyar Mir on the Taliban Harboring al-Qaida Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 10 Aug 2022 15:53:00 +0000

The 2020 Doha Agreement was meant to force the Taliban to "think twice" before harboring terror groups. But Ayman al-Zawahiri's killing in Kabul shows the deal was "just a piece of paper for the Taliban. They had no qualms about once again hosting the main leader of al-Qaida," says USIP's Asfandyar Mir.

Tamanna Salikuddin on the Crisis in Sri Lanka

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 03 Aug 2022 18:39:00 +0000

Despite loosening former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa family's powerful grip on Sri Lankan politics, there's still "a crisis of legitimacy in the country, where people see the leadership can’t deliver" on issues like reconciliation, political reform and addressing the devastating economic crisis, says USIP's Tamanna Salikuddin.

Elie Abouaoun on Tunisia’s New Constitution

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 28 Jul 2022 22:34:00 +0000

On Monday, Tunisians voted on a new constitution proposed by President Kais Saied that vastly expands the powers of his office. While turnout was low, many Tunisians "support what the president is doing … they are voting based on one specific objective, which is to improve economic and social conditions," says USIP's Elie Abouaoun.

Ambassador William Taylor on the State of Russia’s War with Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 20 Jul 2022 21:02:00 +0000

As fighting intensifies in eastern Ukraine, USIP's Ambassador William Taylor says the war is now "a race … between the Ukrainians trying to get new weapons coming from the United States and other NATO nations while the Russians try to move through the eastern part of the country."

Ambassador Hesham Youssef on Biden’s Trip to the Middle East

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 13 Jul 2022 21:30:00 +0000

Biden set to meet nine Middle East leaders, USIP’s Ambassador Hesham Youssef says the trip aims to untangle recent tensions rather than “result in all kinds of breakthroughs and deliverables … the question is whether we can set ourselves on a path that can lead to more constructive relations.”

Juan Diaz-Prinz on Incentivizing Peace Talks in Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 06 Jul 2022 14:51:00 +0000

As it stands, both sides see little reason to engage in peace talks. But USIP’s Juan Diaz-Prinz says that shouldn’t stop the international community from trying to incentive an end to the conflict: “We’ve got to try everything, and we’ve got to try every avenue until the right one fits.”

Donald Jensen on the NATO and G-7 Summits

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 30 Jun 2022 12:54:00 +0000

With back-to-back G-7 and NATO summits this week, USIP's Donald Jensen says President Biden is focused on maintaining unity among allies and partners as the war in Ukraine grinds on: "Putin is counting on the faltering of Western assistance and political support for Ukraine … and that's what we’ll see discussed this week."

Leo Siebert on the State of Tunisia’s Democracy

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 22 Jun 2022 20:12:00 +0000

Last summer, "Tunisians had really reached a breaking point in their frustration with the previous government" and welcomed President Kais Saied's dissolution of parliament, says USIP's Leo Siebert. But that hope "is now shifting to apprehensiveness that things might not be going in the right direction."

Keith Mines on the Summit of the Americas

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 14 Jun 2022 22:16:00 +0000

While "there was a lot of controversy on the way in," USIP's Keith Mines says the summit produced several notable outcomes, including a declaration on migration, that give regional leaders a chance to "put some resources behind [these issues] and hopefully pull together some new initiatives."

Steve Hege on Colombia's Presidential Runoff Vote

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 08 Jun 2022 16:20:00 +0000

With no establishment candidate left, Colombia's June 19 presidential runoff reflects voters' perception that "things [on] the ground are quite bleak" as the remaining candidates "promise significant degrees of change for Colombia and its relationship with the United States," says USIP’s Steve Hege.

Carla Freeman on Biden’s Asia Diplomacy

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 31 May 2022 21:12:00 +0000

President Biden returned from Asia “having scored some positive points in the region,” says USIP’s Carla Freeman. But Biden’s forceful backing of Taiwan and China’s response is leading to “actual risk that there could be a collision … which could spark some kind of conflict.”

Frank Aum on Biden’s Visit to South Korea and Japan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 25 May 2022 19:33:00 +0000

Amid a flurry of Asia diplomatic initiatives, USIP’s Frank Aum says President Biden’s trip is a chance to show the United States is committed to having a major presence in the Indo-Pacific, but that “this is not something that happens in a single summit… We’re going to have to continue to strengthen those efforts.”

Daniel Markey on Strategic Stability in Southern Asia

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 19 May 2022 15:42:00 +0000

Security, territorial and political tensions between Southern Asia’s three nuclear states — Pakistan, India and China — "have gotten worse over the past few years," says USIP’s Daniel Markey. "These are countries that have been at war a number of times… that [makes] these hostilities difficult to manage."

Brian Harding on the U.S.-ASEAN Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 10 May 2022 15:26:00 +0000

Ahead of this week’s U.S.-ASEAN summit, USIP’s Brian Harding says the Biden administration is “kicking off a really intense period of diplomatic engagement with Asia” with plans to draw a contrast with China and seek cooperation on issues such as climate change and supply chains.

Lauren Baillie on Accountability for Atrocities in Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 04 May 2022 12:37:00 +0000

Amid ongoing revelations of atrocities committed against Ukrainians at the hands of Russian forces, USIP’s Lauren Baillie says efforts to investigate and prosecute these crimes will require creativity and “the ability to think more broadly about how we bring perpetrators to justice and recognize the unique needs of victims.”

Heather Ashby on How African Countries Have Reacted to Russia’s War in Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 28 Apr 2022 15:21:00 +0000

As Russia’s war in Ukraine unfolds, USIP’s Heather Ashby says the United States should “keep an eye on Russia’s security partnerships with [African] countries” and pay close attention to “whether the rise in fuel prices or food scarcity trigger any type of unrest” on the continent.

Jason Tower on What the Ukraine War Means for Myanmar

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 19 Apr 2022 18:41:00 +0000

As Russia withdraws resources from Myanmar to focus on Ukraine, China has filled the void by publicly supporting the junta. Meanwhile, the situation inside Myanmar continues to deteriorate, with “the military only able to hang on [to power] by using violence of tragic proportions,” says USIP’s Jason Tower.

Tamanna Salikuddin on the Fall of Pakistan’s Imran Khan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 13 Apr 2022 16:57:00 +0000

Over the weekend, Imran Khan became the first Pakistani prime minister to be ousted in a no-confidence vote. USIP's Tamanna Salikuddin says, "There are a lot of reasons why he lost the support of [the] military establishment and also parliament" but that "his downfall really, number one, was the economy."

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen on Israel’s ‘Groundbreaking’ Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 05 Apr 2022 13:52:00 +0000

Israel’s Negev summit with top Arab and U.S. diplomats was “groundbreaking” for the region. “You could not think of a more dramatic way to underscore the acceptance of Israel into the Arab world,” says USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen.

Donald Jensen on Russia’s Stalled Offensive in Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 29 Mar 2022 18:04:00 +0000

With Russian forces reportedly shifting focus to Donbas, USIP’s Donald Jensen says, “Overall the Russian military has been unmasked to be … quite a bit more of a paper tiger than expected. But that doesn't mean they're not dangerous or effective in some places.”

Andrew Scobell on Comparing Russia-Ukraine to China’s Aggression Toward Taiwan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 17 Mar 2022 13:12:00 +0000

While there are similarities between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s aggression toward Taiwan, USIP’s Andrew Scobell says the two situations are markedly different upon closer inspection: “Russia also likes to flout international norms [while] China largely pretends to be playing by them.”

Donald Jensen on the Latest from Russia’s War in Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 08 Mar 2022 17:38:00 +0000

For the first time in 20 years, USIP's Donald Jensen says we've seen cracks in Russian elites' allegiance to Putin: "While they're still amorphous and not very organized, they're clearly unhappy." And if the war drags on and losses mount, "Putin has a big, long-term problem on his hands."

William Taylor on the Latest from Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 01 Mar 2022 19:49:00 +0000

As Ukraine's military continues to resist Russian advances throughout the country, USIP's Ambassador William Taylor offers the latest updates on the situation, saying the "the international tide is clearly turning against Russia" as more nations implement sanctions and that "Russia is now a pariah state."

Elizabeth Murray on Peacebuilding and the Global Disability Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 23 Feb 2022 19:28:00 +0000

The pandemic has “really laid bare some inequalities” facing those with disabilities, says USIP’s Elizabeth Murray. But last week’s Global Disability Summit offered “an opportunity for disability inclusion to be integrated across U.S. foreign policy,” particularly when it comes to peacebuilding programs.

Asfandyar Mir on the Pakistani Taliban and Afghanistan-Pakistan Border Tensions

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 15 Feb 2022 22:45:00 +0000

As Pakistani leaders quarrel with the neighboring Afghan Taliban over the demarcation of their shared border, USIP’s Asfandyar Mir says Pakistan’s own Taliban insurgency has “been boosted by the example of the Afghan Taliban … if things continue to escalate over the medium term, things become very difficult for Pakistan.”

Tegan Blaine on Climate Change and Peacebuilding

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 10 Feb 2022 21:19:00 +0000

After the annual PeaceCon featured climate change as one of the conference’s main themes, USIP’s Tegan Blaine says, “It’s no longer possible to say that climate change does not intersect with peacebuilding. The realities are there … we need to be more honest about what the likely impacts are going to be.”

Priscilla Clapp on the Anniversary of Myanmar’s Coup

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 02 Feb 2022 00:24:07 +0000

A year after the military coup, Myanmar’s diverse opposition is working together on an alternative to military rule. USIP’s Priscilla Clapp says while “it will take years to bring a consensus about for this new government, it’s a very good start … we have hope that there can be unity there if they work on it.”

Gavin Helf on the Aftermath of Kazakhstan’s Unrest

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 24 Jan 2022 18:07:23 +0000

Kazakhstan has stabilized after protests broke out to start the new year. USIP’s Gavin Helf says while the sudden unrest was driven by “real, honest-to-goodness protests … what we really saw was the weakness of authoritarian systems,” as loyalists of the previous and current leaders clashed amid the public upheaval.

William Taylor on the Crisis in Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 18 Jan 2022 18:27:00 +0000

While Ukraine’s military is in much better shape than when Russia first invaded in 2014, USIP’s William Taylor says it’s “not able to hold off the entire Russian military” alone, and that the United States and NATO must “make it clear to President Putin that the costs of invading will be much greater than the benefits.”

Billy Ford on Myanmar’s Resistance Movement

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 13 Jan 2022 19:52:51 +0000

Despite the military junta’s imprisonment of ousted Myanmar leader Aung San Suu Kyi, USIP’s Billy Ford says there’s an opening for more inclusive narratives within the resistance movement — and if the movement can “unify around those [narratives] … it could come together and potentially defeat this regime.”

Keith Mines on the Situation in Venezuela

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 06 Jan 2022 19:36:08 +0000

Despite a “near-total loss of faith in the political process” going into 2022, USIP’s Keith Mines says Venezuelans have not lost hope for a better future — and that underneath the polarization and dissatisfaction, you can “find a vision for the country that is shared by most Venezuelans.”

Donald Jensen on the 30th Anniversary of the Soviet Union’s Fall

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 27 Dec 2021 20:10:18 +0000

Three decades after President Mikhail Gorbachev resigned, beginning the dissolution of the Soviet Union, USIP’s Donald Jensen says, “The collapse is still continuing. It didn’t fall apart at once … and in many ways [it] shapes our relationship with Eastern Europe and Russia today.”

Brian Harding on Secretary Blinken’s Trip to Southeast Asia

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 20 Dec 2021 21:49:07 +0000

While China’s influence in Southeast Asia is inevitable, the region welcomed Secretary Blinken’s recent trip as a counterweight to Beijing, says USIP’s Brian Harding: “[The region] wants balance, which means they want the United States to be as engaged as possible.”

Elie Abouaoun on Libya’s Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Fri, 17 Dec 2021 19:37:16 +0000

With the vote likely to be postponed, USIP’s Elie Abouaoun says frustrations are high over Libya’s political and economic stagnation as the international community tries to “generate a new political agreement … just to make sure the elections can happen without a major outbreak of violence.”

William Taylor on the Russia-Ukraine Crisis

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 14 Dec 2021 17:43:03 +0000

As Russia continues its military build-up along the Ukrainian border, USIP’s Ambassador William Taylor says diplomatic talks are the best path toward a peaceful resolution — but that we still don’t fully understand Putin’s intentions: “Is he bluffing? Is he trying to intimidate … or is he serious about invading?

Joseph Sany on President Biden’s Democracy Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 06 Dec 2021 20:22:02 +0000

Amid a global democratic recession, USIP’s Joseph Sany says President Biden’s Summit for Democracy is an important “statement of solidarity,” but that “if [democracies] want to regain or strengthen their legitimacy,” they must deliver for their people, adding: “If you lose the citizens’ trust, you lose everything.”

Knox Thames on the State of Global Religious Freedom

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 29 Nov 2021 20:54:31 +0000

It’s been 40 years since the U.N. adopted a resolution to end persecution based on faith and defend religious minorities. USIP’s Knox Thames says decades later, “It’s a work in progress … While the situation is bleak, there is a global movement that is starting to build and trying to meet this challenge.”

Ambassador Makila James on Secretary Blinken’s Trip to Africa

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 23 Nov 2021 20:22:59 +0000

Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent trip to Kenya, Nigeria and Senegal was a major step toward re-establishing U.S. engagement on the continent, says USIP’s Makila James: “Showing up matters in Africa … it’s important to demonstrate to Africans that Africa is vital to U.S. national interests.”

Tegan Blaine on the COP26 Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 15 Nov 2021 19:45:25 +0000

As the climate summit wraps up, USIP’s Tegan Blaine says the focus on net-zero commitments overshadowed immediate concerns such as addressing climate-driven migration: “We needed to commit to these things 10 years ago, 20 years ago … and we didn’t. So now the time is quite short.”

Susan Stigant on the Deepening Conflict in Ethiopia

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 09 Nov 2021 22:37:46 +0000

As rebel forces march toward Ethiopia’s capital in a bid to end the government blockade of the Tigray region, USIP’s Susan Stigant says there is a “risk that this logic of violence could tilt into a much deeper civil war.” In the meantime, Washington should keep trying to “get people to a table and agree to a pause.”

Scott Worden on Afghanistan’s Dire Humanitarian and Economic Crises

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 01 Nov 2021 16:18:49 +0000

As Afghans face mass hunger and economic collapse, USIP’s Scott Worden says it remains to be seen how the Taliban will react to internal and external pressure to address these crises: “Will they respond … by adapting, by softening policies, by being more inclusive or will they have a crackdown?”

Donald Jensen on Sec Austin’s Visit to Georgia, Romania and Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 28 Oct 2021 17:12:06 +0000

USIP’s Donald Jensen looks at what Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin’s recent trip to several countries along the Black Sea means for U.S. policy, saying, “We are looking at the region in its entirety … and Romania, Ukraine and Georgia are key players in the broader effort to curb Russian influence in the region.”

Keith Mines on Secretary Blinken’s Trip to Colombia

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 21 Oct 2021 17:19:10 +0000

As Secretary of State Antony Blinken travels to Colombia, USIP’s Keith Mines notes there is still work to be done in implementing and expanding the 2016 peace agreement with the FARC insurgency, saying that “consolidating the peace in a place like Colombia was almost as hard as fighting the war itself.”

Oge Onubogu on Democratic Concerns in West Africa

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 13 Oct 2021 17:27:40 +0000

While West African countries present “some of the steepest declines in democracy,” USIP’s Oge Onubogu says there is “still an overwhelming support” for democratic governance among citizens in the region, which “presents a key opportunity for engagement between African leaders and this administration.”

Sarhang Hamasaeed on Iraq’s Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 05 Oct 2021 18:52:43 +0000

“All the energy of the country is focused on October 10” as Iraq prepares for crucial parliamentary elections, says USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed. “We’ll see if it will produce a government and a parliament that [is] closer to what the people expect … and restore some of the faith of the voters in the process.”

Dan Markey on the Quad Leaders’ Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 30 Sep 2021 17:06:31 +0000

USIP’s Dan Markey says the growth of the Quad — a partnership between the United States, Australia, India and Japan — can be seen as a counter to China, but “instead of being principally a military organization, the Quad … will focus on more positive ventures” such as vaccine diplomacy, climate change and technology.

Corinne Graff on the U.N. General Assembly’s Theme of Resilience

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 21 Sep 2021 21:18:18 +0000

As the 2021 U.N. General Assembly begins amid a host of global crises, USIP’s Corinne Graff says this year’s theme of resilience must “deal not just with the symptoms of these emergencies, but the root causes as well” and that effective governance is “key to building resilience against many of the global challenges we face today.”

William Byrd on Afghanistan’s Economic Crisis

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 13 Sep 2021 21:24:42 +0000

Amid the fallout from the Taliban’s sudden takeover, USIP’s William Byrd warns that Afghanistan’s economy faces a catastrophic outlook if action isn’t taken — adding that “the Afghan people and the economy have a lot farther to fall than they did the previous time the Taliban were in charge.”

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen on a U.S.-Israel Relationship Reset

U.S. Institute of Peace — Fri, 27 Aug 2021 17:46:19 +0000

Iran and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will likely top the agenda during Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s meeting with President Biden. But USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen says the talks will also serve as a “relational reset … this will really be about setting a tone between these two new leaders.”

Donald Jensen on Ukrainian President Zelensky’s Visit to the U.S.

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 24 Aug 2021 18:35:36 +0000

Ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s long-awaited visit to Washington, USIP’s Donald Jensen says many in D.C. “see the [Ukrainian] fight against corruption as a key benchmark” in determining the future of U.S. assistance, including for Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia.

Tegan Blaine on How Climate Change Impacts Global Conflict

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 16 Aug 2021 15:38:42 +0000

USIP’s Tegan Blaine says we must be cognizant of how efforts to reduce climate change can exacerbate instability and conflict, as the resources needed for a greener global economy “are in places where the countries are already politically fragile” and higher demand adds more stress to already burdened institutions.

Brian Harding on Defense Secretary Austin’s Trip to Vietnam

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 02 Aug 2021 21:36:03 +0000

While cooperation on war legacy issues topped the agenda during U.S. Defense Secretary Austin’s recent trip to Vietnam, USIP’s Brian Harding says the deepening U.S-Vietnam relationship is, in part, meant “to balance what they’re concerned about on [Vietnam’s] northern border” with China.

Bill Taylor on Strategic Stability and Nuclear Security

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 29 Jul 2021 19:13:33 +0000

Nuclear diplomacy has long been a bilateral affair between the United States and Russia. But with China, North Korea and possibly Iran emerging as nuclear threats, USIP’s Bill Taylor says, “The number of actors is a threat to stability” requiring a new framework for addressing issues of nuclear security.

Joseph Sany on the Turmoil in Ethiopia and China’s Role in Africa

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 21 Jul 2021 16:17:32 +0000

As China steps up its engagement in Africa amid lagging vaccination rates and tensions in Ethiopia, USIP’s Joseph Sany says U.S. policy must avoid a narrow, competitive mindset: “[China] is doing what a major superpower does … [the United States] must address African interests, not impose American interests.”

Megan Chabalowski on the USIP Peace Teachers Program

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 14 Jul 2021 16:48:42 +0000

While many students learn about conflict through the lens of violence, USIP’s Megan Chabalowski says the Institute’s Peace Teachers program offers a more nuanced, positive alternative: “It can be really eye-opening for students to see that [peace] is something really practical that you can work toward.”

Tamanna Salikuddin on U.S.-Pakistan Relations

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 06 Jul 2021 20:39:45 +0000

With the world’s fifth largest population, a nuclear-armed military, an important role in Afghanistan and a close relationship with China, Pakistan is vital to U.S. interests. Although there have been periods of turmoil, “Both countries must have a relationship and, ostensibly, share some interests,” says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.

Priscilla Clapp on the Violent Fallout from Myanmar’s Coup

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 29 Jun 2021 19:31:40 +0000

Myanmar’s military expected to reclaim control quickly after February’s coup. But USIP’s Priscilla Clapp says that “when the civilian protests persisted beyond a month, the military began to panic … As a result, the country has descended into chaos and widespread indiscriminate violence.”

Mona Yacoubian on Lebanon’s Dangerous Meltdown

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 24 Jun 2021 14:58:30 +0000

As Lebanon teeters on the edge of total state collapse, USIP’s Mona Yacoubian says very little stands in the way of malign actors and possibly a new migrant crisis in the region: “The lights are truly blinking red … if the army collapses, then, honestly, I think all bets are off.”

Donald Jensen on the Biden-Putin Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 17 Jun 2021 17:49:19 +0000

Despite numerous points of tension, Presidents Biden and Putin characterized this week’s meeting in positive terms. Now, “the administration is trying to decide to what extent to cooperate with the Kremlin … and to what extent to push back,” said USIP’s Donald Jensen ahead of the summit.

Sarhang Hamasaeed on Iraq’s Progress and Problems

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 07 Jun 2021 20:33:35 +0000

With pivotal elections scheduled for October, USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says Iraqis “want democracy, they’re fighting for it with their lives.” Meanwhile, Iraq is still grappling with simmering discontent among many citizens and the destabilizing role of foreign powers.

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Scott Worden on the Afghan Peace Process and U.S. Withdrawal

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 01 Jun 2021 21:24:43 +0000

Troop withdrawal is ahead of schedule, but that’s “proving to be bad news for the overall political situation … and a setback for peace talks,” says USIP’s Scott Worden. While it seems likely that fighting will ramp up, if another military stalemate occurs there could be “a ripe opportunity for talks.”

After a brief hiatus, On Peace is available again on a weekly basis. Explore more episodes: https://www.usip.org/on-peace

A Brief Hiatus

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 06 Jan 2021 15:11:55 +0000

Hello On-Peace Listeners. Please note that after 160 episodes, the On-Peace podcast will be taking a brief hiatus. We look forward to bringing you more great analysis from our incredible team of USIP experts soon. In the meantime, thank you as always for tuning into On-Peace.

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen on Israel’s Political Crisis

U.S. Institute of Peace — Mon, 28 Dec 2020 20:14:03 +0000

As Israel heads toward a fourth elections in two years, USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen says the incoming Biden administration will need to engage in a “balancing act” to “navigate this situation and not start off with a rocky, tempestuous relationship.”

Jacob Stokes on China’s Influence in South Asia

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 17 Dec 2020 21:10:44 +0000

Home to about 2 billion people, South Asia has become a strategic focal point for China’s growing global influence. USIP’s Jacob Stokes says to properly counterbalance Beijing in the region, the United States should focus “less about responding to China … and more engaging with the states of South Asia.”

Steve Hege on Venezuela’s Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 10 Dec 2020 19:36:40 +0000

Last weekend’s legislative elections proved to be “by no means fair or credible,” says USIP’s Steve Hege. To get the country back on track, Hege says a new U.S. administration will “have to work with the opposition and generate within the Venezuelan people some degree of belief in electoral politics.”

Scott Smith on U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Afghanistan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 03 Dec 2020 17:06:45 +0000

With news of a breakthrough in Afghan peace talks, USIP’s Scott Smith warns that future troop withdrawal should “switch from a time-based deadline approach to a conditions-based approach” because if the Taliban believe withdrawal is inevitable, “they have no incentive to compromise.”

Susan Stigant on Ethiopia’s Escalating Civil Conflict

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 19 Nov 2020 18:15:25 +0000

As rising violence in Ethiopia threatens to pull neighboring Eritrea into the fray, USIP’s Susan Stigant says, “There is a real need for some external, independent investigator to help diffuse some of that escalation” and look into disturbing reports of human rights violations stemming from the conflict.

Keith Mines on the Future of U.S. Latin America Policy

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 12 Nov 2020 16:55:09 +0000

Intense polarization in Bolivia, Venezuela, and Colombia will present Washington with significant challenges in the years ahead. But USIP’s Keith Mines says, for the most part, leaders in those countries “are looking for a way forward … there’s a more realistic framework of coexistence that’s emerging.”

Kathleen Kuehnast on the 20th Anniversary of UN Resolution 1325

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 28 Oct 2020 15:23:17 +0000

Two decades after the passage of the landmark resolution on women, peace and security, USIP’s Kathleen Kuehnast points to the 86 countries that have taken action to address the unique experience of women in conflict as proof of progress, but says that getting women more involved in peace processes is “a long game … it is difficult to find room for women at any table.”

Sarhang Hamasaeed on the Anniversary of Iraq’s Protests

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 22 Oct 2020 14:23:03 +0000

A year after Iraqis took to the street, USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says, “The spirits of the protest remain strong,” but that reforms undertaken so far don’t match the scale of the crises facing Iraq: “Those things have not changed daily lives … so the frustration of the people continues.”

Ann Phillips on Azerbaijan-Armenia Conflict

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 15 Oct 2020 18:45:48 +0000

As fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh continues to escalate, USIP’s Ann Phillips breaks down the complex geopolitical stakes that have sprung up around the conflict, which “has been simmering, and ebbing and flowing, ever since the implosion of the Soviet Union.”

Susan Stigant on Sudan’s Latest Peace Agreement

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 08 Oct 2020 16:34:28 +0000

Sudan’s transitional government has signed a peace agreement to end a number of long-standing conflicts and civil wars. USIP’s Susan Stigant says this is a positive sign for democratic progress, as “one of the promises of the revolution was to seek peace,” but cautioned that the real “work only begins once the ink is on the paper.”

Tyler Beckelman on the Virtual U.N. General Assembly

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 30 Sep 2020 18:10:15 +0000

While this year is the U.N.’s 75th Anniversary, the General Assembly was a “more muted affair” than expected, says USIP’s Tyler Beckelman. Member states had a chance to discuss the newly signed Abraham Accord and the future of multilateral diplomacy, but virtual summitry is “no substitute for meeting in person.”

Scott Worden on Afghan Peace Talks

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 23 Sep 2020 20:39:41 +0000

With talks finally underway between the Taliban and Afghan government, USIP’s Scott Worden says initial expectations should be tempered, as the chances for success are “low in the short term, but much higher than if the talks hadn’t begun,” adding, “you can’t end a war without starting a peace process.”

Kathleen Kuehnast on the Inaugural Women Building Peace Award

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 16 Sep 2020 18:39:19 +0000

USIP’s Kathleen Kuehnast discusses the inspiring work of Women Building Peace Award recipient Rita Lopidia of South Sudan, as well as the other finalists, praising “the incredible resilience that each of these 10 women has brought to situations of inequality, of extreme violence, and despair.”

Don Jensen on Protests in Belarus and Russia’s Response

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 09 Sep 2020 17:39:55 +0000

After an “obviously crooked election” in Belarus sparked massive protests, USIP’s Don Jensen says Russia is quietly using the situation to assert influence. If Moscow’s military presence in Belarus increases, “I think you’re going to see a much more forward projection of Russian power against NATO,” he said.

Robert Barron on the Abraham Accord

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 02 Sep 2020 16:00:44 +0000

While a break from longstanding precedent, USIP’s Robert Barron says that normalization between Israel and the UAE was “perhaps a long time coming … [and] it definitely represents an upcoming generation of leadership in the Gulf.” Meanwhile, questions over Israel’s annexation plans continue to linger.

Susan Stigant on Mali’s Military Coup

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 26 Aug 2020 17:23:42 +0000

After months of public protests, a military coup has toppled Mali’s government. USIP’s Susan Stigant looks at the path forward, saying “there’s a real tension in trying to figure out how to restore that constitutional order without necessarily going back to the status quo prior to the coup.”

Sarhang Hamasaeed on the New Iraqi Prime Minister’s U.S. Visit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 19 Aug 2020 20:08:03 +0000

As Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kadhimi makes his first official visit to Washington, USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says the trip is a chance to reset relations between the two countries, but “it’s really important to not define the relationship … just in terms of security,” and also focus on Iraq’s economic challenges and recovery from ISIS.

Osama Gharizi on the Aftermath of the Beirut Explosion

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 13 Aug 2020 14:28:46 +0000

In the wake of the Beirut explosion, USIP’s Osama Gharizi says much of the international aid is being channeled through NGOs and other third-party sources, as “there is a general loss of faith in the Lebanese establishment” after the prime minister and other officials were forced to resign.

Ambassador Hesham Youssef on a New Middle East Peace Quartet

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 06 Aug 2020 15:38:46 +0000

With the Israeli-Palestinian peace process at a standstill, USIP’s Ambassador Hesham Youssef talks about a new, diverse quartet of states that can help reinvigorate talks, saying, “joining hands, they can influence both the Arab position and the European position.”

Jason Klocek on International Religious Freedom

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 30 Jul 2020 13:18:26 +0000

The global rise in religious discrimination and oppression risks creating new cycles of violence. USIP’s Jason Klocek says we must “rethink … some of the conventional wisdom we have about religious freedom and its relationship to peace and development” if we want to reverse this trend and prevent conflict.

Brian Harding on U.S.-China Competition in Southeast Asia

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 22 Jul 2020 19:13:10 +0000

As the United States and China focus more on Southeast Asia, USIP’s Brian Harding says the region’s 10 diverse nations have “become a pretty impressive bloc … [they] realize that U.S.-China competition is here to stay and they’re trying to do their best to navigate it and have agency of their own.”

Nancy Lindborg on the Women Building Peace Award Finalists

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 15 Jul 2020 18:15:22 +0000

Women are often overlooked and underappreciated in peace processes. But USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg says the inaugural Women Building Peace Award will shine a light on women who have “dedicated their lives to doing the kind of work that reduces conflict and resolves violence, often in some of the toughest countries around the world.”

Andrew Wilder on the Latest from Afghanistan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 09 Jul 2020 15:50:21 +0000

After decades of conflict, Afghanistan is closer to a political settlement than ever before. But with new reports of Russian bounties on U.S. soldiers, USIP’s Andrew Wilder says there’s concern the issue “distracts from the bigger-picture need for the U.S. to continue to support the peace process.”

Thomas Hill on Libya’s New Stalemate

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 01 Jul 2020 17:35:41 +0000

After a four-month offensive by the western U.N.-backed government, the Libyan conflict has fallen back into a stalemate. USIP’s Thomas Hill says the question now is whether the new stalemate “will lead to a political solution or is just another step in the road … until one side controls all of the oil wealth.”

Keith Mines on Venezuela’s Spiraling Humanitarian Crisis

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 24 Jun 2020 20:15:57 +0000

The humanitarian crisis in Venezuela is reaching proportions not seen in Latin America since the 1930s. Meanwhile, USIP’s Keith Mines says the country is at a “tragic impasse, and that impasse is entirely political,” as both Juan Guaidó and Nicolás Maduro maintain their respective claims to power.

Sarhang Hamasaeed on the U.S.-Iraq Strategic Dialogue

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 17 Jun 2020 15:48:32 +0000

As the United States and Iraq engage in important talks this month, USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says the focus should be “Iraq-centric policy,” even as Baghdad “is under a lot of pressure from Iran and its allies … to use the dialogue to put pressure on the United States to withdraw its troops and limit U.S. influence.”

Elie Abouaoun on Lebanon’s Deepening Crisis

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 11 Jun 2020 13:41:03 +0000

Lebanon’s leaders have lacked a cohesive strategy to respond to COVID-19, exacerbating tensions that sparked mass protests last fall. But while the government struggles, and Hezbollah’s influence weakens, USIP’s Elie Abouaoun says, “Unfortunately, the protest movement is as fragmented as the government.”

Vikram Singh on Tensions Along the China-India Border

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 04 Jun 2020 20:33:43 +0000

In recent weeks, Chinese and Indian soldiers have been fighting on their long-disputed border. USIP’s Vikram Singh says these skirmishes are not new—but that the latest hostilities echo China’s aggression in other parts of the region, saying, “It seems like China is flexing its muscle in every direction.”

Jacob Stokes on China’s Hong Kong Policy

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 27 May 2020 20:46:03 +0000

After Beijing passed a new law curtailing freedom in Hong Kong, protests have again erupted in the territory. USIP’s Jacob Stokes says Hong Kong’s democracy poses a threat to Beijing’s legitimacy, and that if China “can’t produce enough economic growth … then that threat … becomes much more acute.”

Scott Worden on the Afghan Power-sharing Deal

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 20 May 2020 16:06:20 +0000

A political deal to resolve the disputed 2019 presidential election was finally reached over the weekend. USIP’s Scott Worden says the agreement “is quite significant” because it will give the Afghan side “more political coherence to negotiate with the Taliban and, if implemented, it will show the Taliban they can’t divide Afghans.”

Patricia Kim on China and Coronavirus in the Red Sea Arena

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 14 May 2020 14:58:45 +0000

With coronavirus spreading in the Red Sea region, USIP’s Patricia Kim says Red Sea states don’t want to be forced to choose between major powers. “When things like the COVID-19 pandemic peak in fragile places,” says Kim, “this definitely requires cooperation between the United States and China.”

Tyler Beckelman on Cooperation to Combat Coronavirus

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 06 May 2020 18:53:59 +0000

A “mixed” response from the international community is threatening a worst-case scenario for fragile states facing COVID-19. USIP’s Tyler Beckelman says countries need to recognize “the best strategy for defeating the virus is defeating it everywhere” and cooperate on aid in fragile contexts.

Jonathan Pinckney on Social Movements and Coronavirus

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 29 Apr 2020 17:29:15 +0000

Coronavirus has led to a 70 percent decline in public protests worldwide compared to last year—but this doesn’t mean social movements are going away. “There are literally hundreds of other tactics … to express dissent while still following social distancing guidelines,” says USIP’s Jonathan Pinckney.

Susan Hayward on Religion and Coronavirus

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 22 Apr 2020 17:45:12 +0000

While USIP’s Susan Hayward acknowledges that religion has, at times, hampered public health, she notes religion has also been invoked “in ways that have brought meaning, that have mobilized people to respond to the needs of the vulnerable.”

Frank Aum on North Korea and Coronavirus

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 16 Apr 2020 15:20:38 +0000

Despite reporting no confirmed cases, USIP’s Frank Aum says, “It’s safe to say the virus is in North Korea,” and that the isolated nation is still trying to “maintain the visage of invulnerability” through missile tests and other military demonstrations—all while instituting drastic public health measures.

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen on Israel’s Political Turmoil and the Coronavirus Crisis

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 09 Apr 2020 15:11:15 +0000

After three elections, Israel’s political crisis is reportedly coming to an end. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen explains that the focus has now shifted to the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, saying, “What you do often see in the face of these immediate crises is a lot of banding together and cooperation … the question is how long it holds afterwards.”

Steve Hege on Venezuela and Colombia During Coronavirus

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 02 Apr 2020 15:48:43 +0000

After the U.S. indictment of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, USIP’s Steve Hege looks at how the political crisis in Venezuela endangers vulnerable populations as well as neighboring Colombia amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Nancy Lindborg on the Impact of Coronavirus in Fragile States

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 26 Mar 2020 15:01:33 +0000

As COVID-19 cases appear in the Middle East and Africa, USIP’s Nancy Lindborg talks about opportunities for peace amid the humanitarian and security risks posed by an outbreak. “The hope is that everyone uses this opportunity to put down their arms and think differently about conflict,” says Lindborg.

Sarhang Hamasaeed on Iran and Iraq Amid Coronavirus Pandemic

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 19 Mar 2020 16:05:12 +0000

As the coronavirus pandemic spreads in both countries, USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed examines the obstacles facing Iraq’s newly appointed prime minister, as well as whether addressing the crisis might open the door for de-escalation between the U.S. and Iran, saying, “I do hope that these unfortunate challenges still come with some opportunity.”

Mona Yacoubian on Syria’s Future After Nine Years of Conflict

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 11 Mar 2020 20:21:10 +0000

Idlib is the site of Syria’s largest displacement crisis since the conflict began nine years ago, with nearly one million displaced in the province. As the Assad regime continues to reclaim Idlib, USIP’s Mona Yacoubian looks at the future for Syria, saying “the fact of the matter is that Syrians are terrified to live under Assad’s rule.”

Belquis Ahmadi on Afghan Women and the Peace Process

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 05 Mar 2020 19:26:33 +0000

Since 2001, Afghan women have assumed larger roles in society—becoming teachers, doctors and government officials. With intra-Afghan talks expected to begin this month, USIP’s Belquis Ahmadi says it’s important the Taliban “accept the reality that today’s Afghanistan is very different from the country they ruled” when it comes to women’s rights.

Vikram Singh on President Trump’s Trip to India

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 26 Feb 2020 19:29:47 +0000

The visit did not yield a bilateral trade agreement, as many hoped it would. But USIP’s Vikram Singh says that despite the trade impasse, the trip did deliver defense and energy deals and reinforced “the symbolism of this partnership continuing to grow basically as it has for the entire 21st century.”

Scott Worden on Afghan Elections and the Peace Process

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 19 Feb 2020 21:23:49 +0000

Amid news of an interim U.S.-Taliban deal, Afghanistan’s election commission announced President Ashraf Ghani has won reelection—a result his opponent has openly rejected. USIP’s Scott Worden warns this kind of political infighting weakens the government’s negotiating position ahead of possible intra-Afghan talks, saying “the Taliban profit from political chaos.”

Payton Knopf on What’s Ahead for the Horn of Africa in 2020

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 13 Feb 2020 17:21:26 +0000

As Arab Gulf states and Turkey ramp up their competition for influence in the Horn of Africa, USIP’s Payton Knopf says the increased attention “has tended to exacerbate some of the internal tensions and political insecurities” in Ethiopia and Sudan—two states undergoing democratic transitions vital for regional stability.

Dr. Elie Abouaoun on the Situation in Syria

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 06 Feb 2020 17:56:14 +0000

After direct military confrontations between the Assad regime and Turkey in Syria’s Idlib province, USIP’s Dr. Elie Abouaoun explains how the Turkish and Russian governments are trying to contain the fallout, saying “I do not think any party has an interest right now in provoking a full-blown escalation.”

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen on the Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 29 Jan 2020 20:17:30 +0000

Discussing the Trump administration’s long-awaited peace plan, USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen says that although the proposal nods toward a two-state solution, the details leave one “hard pressed to see how it serves as a formula or basis for bringing both parties back to the table.”

Thomas Hill on Libya Peace Talks in Berlin

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 22 Jan 2020 19:30:28 +0000

At the Berlin Conference last weekend, participants reached a “gentlemen’s agreement” to halt the influx of arms from international actors into Libya’s conflict. USIP’s Thomas Hill says that while “there’s probably something for both pessimists and optimists,” the lack of any formal agreement means the results are “tenuous at best.”

Nancy Lindborg on the Iran Crisis and its Impact on Iraq and Afghanistan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 16 Jan 2020 15:46:58 +0000

USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg explains how U.S.-Iran tensions could exacerbate state fragility and hamper longstanding peacebuilding efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, saying, “All of this can be put at risk with the current tensions as both countries really fear becoming collateral damage.”

Sarhang Hamasaeed on U.S.-Iran Tensions

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 09 Jan 2020 15:06:16 +0000

Iran has stated that—barring a U.S. response—the missile attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq will be the only immediate retaliation for the killing of Soleimani. USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says this latest development offers an exit from further escalation, but “this doesn’t mean the broader tensions and the slower, more simmering tensions … will end.”

Dr. Elie Abouaoun on Iraq and U.S.-Iran Tensions

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 02 Jan 2020 19:44:59 +0000

Following the attempted siege of the American Embassy in Iraq, USIP’s Elie Abouaoun says the U.S. must increase its presence in Iraq because it “doesn’t have the choice but to increase its investment … so that the expansion of Iranian influence is basically contained.”

Maria Stephan on What We Get Wrong About Protest Movements

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 19 Dec 2019 14:11:09 +0000

This year has seen an extraordinary rise in people power. Despite significant coverage of these movements, many misconceptions about how they work persist. USIP’s Maria J. Stephan addresses those myths and says, “The most defining variable of successful nonviolent movements is large, diverse and sustained participation.”

Frank Aum on the Year in North Korea Diplomacy

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 12 Dec 2019 16:07:10 +0000

With North Korea’s self-imposed, year-end deadline for a nuclear deal looming, USIP’s Frank Aum says that while complete denuclearization isn’t likely in the near term, “all of the components of a good-enough interim nuclear deal are there, but both sides need to be flexible on some of the harder issues.”

Steve Hege on Colombia’s Protests and Stalled Peace

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 04 Dec 2019 21:30:34 +0000

In Colombia, protesters are demanding that President Ivan Duque address concerns over economic inequality, corruption, the Venezuela crisis and implementation of the 2016 FARC peace accord in what USIP’s Steve Hege calls the country’s “largest mass mobilization in four decades.”

Nancy Lindborg on the Role of People Power in Global Security

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 27 Nov 2019 17:17:24 +0000

Returning from the Halifax International Security Forum, USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg explains why the growing number of “people power” movements around the world have left her optimistic, saying “the notion of what constitutes national security continues to evolve…security includes governments that are responsive to the needs of their people.”

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen on the Latest with the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 20 Nov 2019 19:07:19 +0000

As Israel appears headed for another election, the U.S. has reversed its long-standing position on the legality of Israeli settlements. The decision, according to USIP’s Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen, “comes after a long stream of events that’s made the possibility of bringing the parties back to the table extremely hard to imagine.”

Scott Smith on What’s Next in the Afghan Peace Process

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 14 Nov 2019 17:01:28 +0000

The Afghan government and Taliban announced an agreement on a prisoner exchange this week, but it remains unclear what comes next. With the presidential election still undecided, “The question is if this is the beginning of a new peace strategy on the part of President Ghani, will he be the president a few months from now to carry that strategy forward?” asks USIP’s Scott Smith.

Nathaniel Wilson on Libya’s Protracted Conflict

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 07 Nov 2019 19:00:17 +0000

Factional violence and civil war have prevented Libya from transitioning to a secure, democratic government in the eight years since Qaddafi’s fall. But USIP’s Nathaniel Wilson says the path to peace still exists, and that “these kinds of generational revolutions take more time than that to play out.”

Sarhang Hamasaeed on Iraq, Syria and ISIS

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 31 Oct 2019 17:35:45 +0000

Several major developments have rattled the region in recent weeks, including Iraq’s ongoing protests, the U.S. withdrawal from Syria and the death of ISIS leader al-Baghdadi. USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says his death is a major blow to the terrorist group, but “the fact remains that … the enabling environment that gave rise to ISIS” is still present.

Mona Yacoubian on the Rapidly Evolving Situation in Syria

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 23 Oct 2019 18:27:06 +0000

In the aftermath of U.S. troop withdrawal from northeast Syria, USIP’s Mona Yacoubian says “we’re seeing Russia come in and fill the vacuum,” which will have “long-term strategic implications” for stemming a possible reemergence of ISIS as well as U.S. influence in the region.

Susan Stigant on Ethiopia’s Nobel Peace Prize Winner

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 16 Oct 2019 16:01:01 +0000

Last week, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for his diplomatic engagement with neighboring Eritrea and initiating a host of domestic reforms. USIP’s Susan Stigant explains how the award shines a light on his accomplishments and “sets an expectation that he will continue to provide that leadership going forward.”

Steve Hege on the Latest in Venezuela and Colombia

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 02 Oct 2019 18:34:36 +0000

The crisis in Venezuela and increasing tensions between the Colombian government and the Maduro regime threaten the security of the region and the implementation of Colombia’s 2016 FARC peace accord. USIP’s Steve Hege discusses recent obstacles to implementation of that accord and how the U.S. can support a democratic transition in Venezuela.

Leo Siebert on Tunisia’s Presidential Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 25 Sep 2019 17:30:53 +0000

Last week, Tunisians voted for “a wholesale dismissal of everyone who’s governed before” in the first round of presidential elections, said USIP’s Leo Siebert. And with parliamentary and runoff elections upcoming, a string of free and fair elections could help Tunisia “prove to the world, and be a model to its neighbors, that democracy is possible.”

Jill Welch on the Peace Day Challenge

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 18 Sep 2019 18:16:00 +0000

Ahead of the International Day of Peace on September 21, USIP’s Jill Welch talks about how the Institute’s annual Peace Day Challenge gives people around the world “the opportunity to take an action, however big or small, to make peace possible together.”

Nancy Lindborg on a New Prevention Policy 18 Years After 9/11

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 11 Sep 2019 18:49:00 +0000

Eighteen years after 9/11, USIP President and CEO Nancy Lindborg reflects on the continued spread of violent extremism and points to the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States as a blueprint for a new, preventive approach, saying, “I think we’ve all realized this is not a problem we can bomb our way out of.”

Sarhang Hamasaeed on Iraq Amid Rising Tensions in the Middle East

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 04 Sep 2019 20:57:18 +0000

Iraqi leaders are concerned that efforts to improve governance and build durable institutions are being overwhelmed by rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran and the potential of a proxy war in the country. “This pressure has definitely undermined the Iraqi government,” says USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed.

Scott Worden on a U.S.-Taliban Peace Deal

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 29 Aug 2019 19:59:32 +0000

A peace agreement between the U.S. and Taliban is rumored to be imminent. But USIP’s Scott Worden says any deal would only be “the first step, the tip of the iceberg” for lasting peace in Afghanistan, as the conflict stems from political issues “that have been going on for about 40 years.”

Frank Aum on the Latest on North Korea Nuclear Negotiations

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 22 Aug 2019 17:12:44 +0000

Once U.S.-South Korean joint exercises conclude next week, USIP’s Frank Aum believes working-level negotiations with North Korea will resume. Despite the lack of progress over the last year, Aum says, “We need to be able to resolve [issues] within the framework of a deal rather than scrapping the deal altogether.”

Jacob Stokes on China’s Credibility Problem

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 15 Aug 2019 15:51:27 +0000

Amid the escalating Hong Kong crisis, USIP’s Jacob Stokes says China’s history of breaking deals has created a basic credibility problem that “relates to Hong Kong, it relates to territorial disputes in the South China Sea, on hacking and cyber theft, and on certain parts of the World Trade Organization.”

Thomas Hill on Libya and Tunisia in Transition

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 08 Aug 2019 16:23:34 +0000

The death of President Essebsi was a major loss for Tunisia, but the U.S. remains deeply invested in advancing democracy in the country. Alternatively, looking to the instability in Libya, Hill says, “The U.S. is not involved at all, [even though some] Libyans are pressing for the U.S. to do more … The most productive way the U.S. can be involved is not militarily or financially, but rather diplomatically.”

Leanne Erdberg on Violent Extremist Disengagement and Reconciliation

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 01 Aug 2019 18:30:53 +0000

While some will face criminal trial, many of those who traveled to live with ISIS but have disavowed its ideology will have to reintegrate into their communities. “We need to encourage a way to talk about them so that they can form new bonds with their communities,” says Leanne Erdberg. “Language has a very important role to play.”

Moeed Yusuf on Imran Khan’s Visit to Washington

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 25 Jul 2019 18:19:38 +0000

Following Khan’s visit with President Trump, Moeed Yusuf says that the two leaders appear to have a chemistry that could improve U.S.-Pakistan relations. Although the two countries have been at odds over the Afghan conflict, Yusuf says Trump and Khan indicated they would “work together to find ways to break the impasse on Afghanistan.”

Megan Chabalowski on USIP’s Peace Teachers Program

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 17 Jul 2019 18:02:44 +0000

Young people are hungry for examples of people working for peace in some of the world’s most violent conflicts, and they are curious about ways they too can make a positive difference. Megan Chabalowski explains how USIP’s Peace Teachers Program provides educators with the in-depth training and resources needed to incorporate peacebuilding into their classrooms and communities.

Scott Smith on the Afghan Peace Process

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 11 Jul 2019 20:01:35 +0000

Following unprecedented talks between Taliban and Afghan leaders this week, which have provided renewed hope for peace, the Taliban claimed credit for an attack in Ghanzi province. Scott Smith says Afghanistan is now exhibiting “one of the usual paradoxes of this stage of a peace process … where both parties, as they begin to talk more, they begin to fight more.”

Kathleen Kuehnast on Women in Conflict Zones

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 03 Jul 2019 19:49:00 +0000

At a recent USIP event, Nobel laureate Nadia Murad discussed her efforts to end sexual violence and human trafficking—two criminal practices that Kathleen Kuehnast says “have been institutionalized and militarized.” To disincentivize these human rights abuses, Kuehnast says we must reinforce that these heinous but often lucrative practices are “not a livelihood—this is criminality.”

Frank Aum on North Korea Nuclear Negotiations

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 20 Jun 2019 17:37:53 +0000

A year after the first summit between President Trump and Kim Jong Un, “both sides are very much committed to diplomacy and trying to reach an agreement,” says Frank Aum. Despite the stalled talks, Aum says that Chinese President Xi’s visit to North Korea will likely encourage Kim to continue along the path of diplomacy.

Vikram Singh on Hong Kong and India-Pakistan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 13 Jun 2019 18:47:59 +0000

Massive unrest has hit Hong Kong, as citizens protest an extradition law they believe is favorable to China. Vikram Singh says protesters’ fear that Beijing is working to undermine Hong Kong’s longstanding judicial independence. Looking at India and Pakistan, Singh says that the chances for meaningful dialogue right now are small, as both countries focus on their own issues.

Jacob Stokes on China and Sovereignty

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 06 Jun 2019 18:45:47 +0000

Under the Trump administration, the U.S. has made protecting sovereignty a core principle of its foreign policy and U.S.-China relations. While Beijing prioritizes protecting sovereignty at home, “its actions abroad raise questions about whether it’s interested in protecting the sovereignty of other countries,” says USIP’s Jacob Stokes.

Maria Stephan on Today’s Nonviolent Movements

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 30 May 2019 18:25:42 +0000

In the last two months, dictators in Sudan and Algeria were forced to step down because of popular pressure, demonstrating the power of nonviolent resistance to movements in places like Nicaragua and Venezuela. “When large numbers of people engage in various forms of noncooperation … that is where the real power of nonviolent resistance comes from,” says Maria Stephan.

Payton Knopf on the Stakes in Sudan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 23 May 2019 19:36:29 +0000

What’s at stake in Sudan as tense negotiations between the Transitional Military Council and protesters continue? “We need to see a swift transition to civilian-led rule,” says Payton Knopf. “Otherwise I’m afraid what will result is increased instability … or potentially a catastrophic failure of the state.”

Belquis Ahmadi on the Afghan Peace Process

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 16 May 2019 17:54:08 +0000

Reflecting on recent conversations in Doha and Kabul, USIP’s Belquis Ahmadi says that Afghans told her they want peace, but are not willing to sacrifice the hard-won gains of the last 18 years to get there. As U.S.-Taliban talks move forward, the extent of the Taliban’s evolution on issues like women’s rights remains in question. “I’ll believe it when I see it,” says Ahmadi.

Leanne Erdberg on the Psychology Behind Terrorism

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 09 May 2019 14:50:22 +0000

Nearly 20 years after 9/11, determining the profile of someone who is going to join a terrorist group remains a deeply challenging effort. For too long we have looked at simple explanations— like poverty or lack of education—for why people join violent movements. Erdberg discusses a new project to investigate the psychology and neuroscience that motivates people to resort to extremism.

Thomas Hill on the Upheaval in North Africa

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 02 May 2019 16:22:19 +0000

From Algeria to Libya and beyond, North Africa has been roiled by unrest in recent months. USIP’s Thomas Hill says at its core this turmoil is the result of “governments having not performed to the degree that they [the people] want or need them to” and discusses how it impacts U.S. interests.

Amb. Bill Taylor on Ukraine’s Presidential Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 25 Apr 2019 18:12:37 +0000

Following his election observation, Taylor discusses Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s victory and how he can build support at home and abroad. “The president-elect is already getting a lot of support from the international community,” and if he implements the pro-Western policies he advocated during the campaign the U.S. will continue to strengthen bilateral ties, says Taylor.

Susan Stigant on the Turmoil in Sudan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 18 Apr 2019 12:35:21 +0000

The overthrow of longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir could have important implications for Sudan and the broader region, says Susan Stigant. “What we see in Sudan at the moment isn’t just about what’s happening in the country … it could also have far reaching ramifications in the region in other locations like Libya that are priorities for the United States.”

Nancy Lindborg on Iraq Rebuilding After ISIS

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 11 Apr 2019 14:17:47 +0000

Following her trip to Iraq, Nancy Lindborg discusses the country’s efforts to rebuild after ISIS. “They’ve [ISIS] been deprived of their territory …. rebuilding is under way. But, there is very much a sense that the ISIS ideology is alive and well and there are a lot of concerns overall about security” says Lindborg. “There has been important progress, but it’s very precarious and completely reversible.”

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen on the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty 40 Years Later

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 04 Apr 2019 17:29:07 +0000

Reflecting on the 40th anniversary of the Egypt-Israel peace treaty, Kurtzer-Ellenbogen says, “One of the big factors with the Egypt-Israel agreement was … bold, courageous leadership that was willing to make unprecedented moves … That’s of course eventually what’s going to need to happen to come to an agreement between the Israelis and Palestinians.”

Sarhang Hamasaeed on the Challenges Facing Iraq’s New Government

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 28 Mar 2019 18:59:12 +0000

USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed says, “Iraq is at its best state in the last five years. The country is recovering from an existential fight with ISIS … and the Kurds are now back in Iraq’s politics and more involved.” Yet, many Iraqis remain disenchanted with the country’s political leaders and are skeptical of the government’s ability to deliver services, security, and jobs.

Amb. Bill Taylor on Russia's Annexation of Crimea

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 21 Mar 2019 14:57:27 +0000

On the five-year anniversary of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Amb. Taylor—a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine—explains why it has been so difficult for Ukraine and its allies to oust Russia from the Ukrainian territory. “Sadly … the people of Crimea are worse off than they were five years ago,” while the West continues to struggle with how to respond to Moscow’s territorial grab.

Patricia Kim on North Korea Diplomacy

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 14 Mar 2019 20:38:23 +0000

Patricia Kim analyzes the failure of the Hanoi Summit. “China should lean in,” says Kim discussing the spectrum of tools Beijing has available from diplomacy to unilateral sanctions. In future negotiations, the U.S. should focus on “hammering out a clearly defined and time bound roadmap that ends with the de-nuclearization of North Korea.”

Amb. Richard Olson on the India-Pakistan Crisis

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 07 Mar 2019 15:01:26 +0000

Last week, tensions between India and Pakistan—sparked by a suicide attack claimed by a Pakistan-based terrorist group—put the world on notice. “The United States has reached a point where it believes that the militants operating out of Pakistan are … a threat, not just to India and to Afghanistan and our forces in Afghanistan, but … a threat to the long-term stability of the Pakistani state,” says Richard Olson, a former U.S. ambassador to Pakistan.

Nancy Lindborg on a New Prevention Paradigm

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 27 Feb 2019 22:20:49 +0000

Following the release of the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States’ final report, Nancy Lindborg explains why a new prevention paradigm is needed to address the root causes of extremism in fragile states. “We are in a moment of convergence and shared desire to figure out how to do these tough tasks differently,” says Lindborg.

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen on the Warsaw Conference

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 21 Feb 2019 16:13:52 +0000

Last week’s U.S.-led Warsaw Conference brought together more than 60 countries to discuss peace and security challenges in the Middle East. The conference underscored U.S.-European tensions over Iran and the growing rapprochement between Israel and Arab states, and led many to believe the Trump administration will soon be releasing its Middle East peace plan, Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen said.

Oge Onubogu on Nigeria’s Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 14 Feb 2019 21:34:38 +0000

As Africa’s most populous country with its biggest economy, Nigeria is a bellwether for the continent. On Saturday, Nigerians will go to the polls to elect their next president and members of the National Assembly. This critical election will be a test of the resilience of Nigeria’s democratic institutions and widely watched by the international community, says USIP’s Oge Onubogu.

Andrew Wilder on the Afghan Peace Process

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 07 Feb 2019 19:31:24 +0000

“I think President Trump has really unlocked the possibility for the peace process by putting our troops on the table, as long as we just don’t withdraw them unilaterally,” says Andrew Wilder. Following President Trump’s clarification of the administration’s strategy during the State of the Union, Wilder shares his analysis of the ongoing peace process in Afghanistan.

Mona Yacoubian on the State of Play in Syria

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 31 Jan 2019 20:12:20 +0000

Eight years of conflict has decimated Syria’s infrastructure and shredded the social fabric. But, intelligence officials expect ISIS to be “fully ejected” from Syrian territory in the next two to four weeks. Mona Yacoubian argues that a precipitous U.S. withdrawal could lead to an ISIS resurgence and examines the complex regional situation.

Kathleen Kuehnast on the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize Winners

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 20 Dec 2018 19:03:25 +0000

Highlighted by the 2018 Nobel Peace Prize award to Dr. Denis Mukwege and Nadia Murad—advocates for survivors of wartime sexual violence—the issue of sexual abuse has gained international recognition. USIP’s Kathleen Kuehnast attended the ceremony, saying, “People were standing in solidarity to what they were hearing. We can no longer be indifferent about this type of criminal activity.”

Elie Abouaoun on Iraq a Year After the Fall of ISIS

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 13 Dec 2018 18:39:52 +0000

Live from Baghdad as Iraqis celebrate the one-year anniversary of the fall of ISIS, Elie Abouaoun says that there is a sense of relief in the country over the terrorist group’s defeat and that elections happened this year. To maintain this positive momentum, adds Abouaoun, Iraq’s infrastructure must be rebuilt, and measures should be taken to reinforce social cohesion at the local level.

Ambassador Chester Crocker on President Bush’s Legacy

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 06 Dec 2018 19:37:56 +0000

A former assistant secretary of state for Africa, Amb. Crocker was appointed to USIP’s Board of Directors by President Bush. Reflecting on the late president’s legacy, Crocker said, “George H.W. Bush understood we had many audiences in our foreign policy and that we have to talk to all of them, be understood by all of the them and be able to put everything into a kind of overall balance.”

Bill Taylor on Russia's Seizure of Ukrainian Ships

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 29 Nov 2018 15:11:32 +0000

“There’s no doubt in my mind that President Vladimir Putin knew what was going on and had given the general guidance,” says William B. Taylor, regarding Russia’s seizure of Ukrainian ships in a vital maritime trade route for Ukraine. The United States and Europe must jointly apply additional economic sanctions and provide military assistance to Ukraine to pressure Russia to cease its aggressive actions.

Moeed Yusuf on the 10th Anniversary of the Mumbai Attacks

U.S. Institute of Peace — Fri, 23 Nov 2018 21:05:00 +0000

Ten years ago this week, 10 members of Lashkar-e-Taiba—a Pakistan-based terrorist organization—carried out a series of coordinated attacks in Mumbai. Moeed Yusuf explains how the attacks derailed the most promising peace process India and Pakistan had ever managed and how U.S. mediation was critical to averting war in South Asia in the aftermath of “India’s 9/11.”

Johnny Walsh on Election Season in Afghanistan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 15 Nov 2018 17:18:23 +0000

As Afghans wait for official results from the parliamentary polls, Johnny Walsh says that the country is already entering “high political season” in preparation for the critical April 2019 presidential election. Although the Taliban continues to carry out high-profile attacks across the country, Walsh says that many Afghans are focused on the presidential polls and its implications for the peace process.

Thomas Hill on Libya

U.S. Institute of Peace — Fri, 09 Nov 2018 20:36:04 +0000

Since the fall of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011, successive U.S. administrations have watched Libya’s continuing collapse, mistakenly believing that the country’s unraveling threatens only Europe, says Thomas Hill. Ahead of the Palermo conference, which aims to find a solution to the crisis in Libya, Hill says that United States’ should play a more direct role in stabilizing the country.

Charles North on Russia in Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 01 Nov 2018 18:34:34 +0000

“In its fifth year, Russia's armed aggression in Ukraine's Donbas region has become a costly burden with little strategic benefit,” says Charles North. One possible exit ramp has emerged from recent negotiations: a U.N.-mandated peacekeeping operation to facilitate a peace process resulting in Russia’s departure from Donbas and the return of control to Ukraine.

Vikram Singh on the South China Sea

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 24 Oct 2018 20:56:31 +0000

With trillions in goods moving through the South China Sea annually, it’s arguably the most important shipping lane on the planet, says Vikram Singh. While China says that it wants to keep the sea free and open for trade, most worryingly for the United States, Beijing has claimed it can deny access to military vessels, challenging the U.S.’ ability to maintain a balance of power in the region.

Scott Worden on Afghanistan’s Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 18 Oct 2018 19:19:45 +0000

Just back from Kabul, Scott Worden shares his analysis about the mood on-the-ground with the long overdue parliamentary elections set to take place this weekend. Taliban interference, fraud and voter turnout will greatly impact the election’s legitimacy, which will foreshadow what to expect for the more critical 2019 presidential election.

Mona Yacoubian on the State of Play in Syria

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 10 Oct 2018 16:12:00 +0000

Mona Yacoubian discusses the state of play in Syria ahead of important withdrawal deadlines this week for removing heavy weapons from Idlib province. Yacoubian also discusses the waves of migration forced by the crisis, noting that 2018 has been the worst year to date for internally displaced Syrians; and the recent news that U.S. special operations forces are likely to remain in the country indefinitely to prevent a possible re-emergence of ISIS.

Jonas Claes on Election Risk in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 04 Oct 2018 19:58:39 +0000

Jonas Claes provides risk analysis for elections taking place in the Democratic Republic of Congo in December and in Ukraine in March, 2019. A combination of complicating factors ranging from ongoing conflicts, outside meddling, logistical hurdles and voter apathy top Claes’ concerns that election violence could be stoked in both elections.

Philippe Leroux-Martin on Russia's Intentions in Macedonia and Kosovo

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 27 Sep 2018 20:24:12 +0000

Philippe Leroux-Martin explains Russia’s intentions for interfering in both Macedonia and Kosovo to thwart possible NATO expansion and EU membership, and Western efforts to counter the Russian moves. Macedonians head to the polls on September 30 to vote in a referendum to change the country’s name to North Macedonia to resolve a long-running disagreement with Greece, which could ease the way to joining the Western blocs. Meanwhile, Serbia and Kosovo are discussing a land swap that could result in redrawing borders that citizens fear will result in violence in an already volatile region.

Amb. Joseph Yun on the Latest with North Korea

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 20 Sep 2018 20:46:13 +0000

With the diplomatic process between the U.S. and North Korea at a stalemate, Ambassador Joseph Yun discusses the key takeaways from this week’s inter-Korean summit and the improvement in North-South relations. For Washington and Pyongyang to move forward, Yun says the two sides need to first agree on a definition of, and process for, the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

Nancy Lindborg on Addressing Extremism in Fragile States

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 12 Sep 2018 20:39:47 +0000

Seventeen years after the 9/11 attacks, Nancy Lindborg details the findings of an interim report from the congressionally mandated Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States. Convened by USIP, the Task Force will devise a comprehensive new strategy for addressing the underlying causes of extremism in fragile states, says Lindborg, a member of the Task Force.

Sarhang Hamasaeed on Iraq’s Government Formation

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 06 Sep 2018 19:11:41 +0000

Four months after Iraq held elections, a new government has yet to form as the majority Shia factions remain divided. Sarhang Hamasaeed discusses the complicated route to forming a government and the recent unrest in Basra aimed at the current government for its failure to provide electricity and other basic services.

Frank Aum on North Korea Negotiations

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 30 Aug 2018 19:59:22 +0000

Since the Singapore Summit, Washington and Pyongyang have been mired in a stalemate over the sequencing of an end of war declaration and North Korea’s disarmament. Yet, even after the cancellation of Secretary Pompeo’s visit, USIP’s Frank Aum says talks will likely continue, as both sides are invested in a successful outcome.

Johnny Walsh on Peace in Afghanistan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 22 Aug 2018 20:23:02 +0000

Despite the Taliban’s failure to accept the Kabul government’s offer of another cease-fire this week, Johnny Walsh says that a political solution to the Afghanistan war is the best alternative to the current military stalemate. Even absent a cease-fire, hope remains that the peace process can move forward in 2018.

Payton Knopf on the Geopolitical Tensions in the Red Sea

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 15 Aug 2018 17:59:59 +0000

Both the eastern and western shores of the Red Sea increasingly function as a common political and security arena in which the U.S. has significant interests, including the free flow of $700 billion in commerce and competition for influence from external powers like China and Iran. To address the region’s interlinked challenges requires a comprehensive U.S. strategy, says Payton Knopf.

Mona Yacoubian on Syria

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 09 Aug 2018 15:46:25 +0000

As the Assad regime consolidates power across Syria, Mona Yacoubian says that regime change is increasingly unlikely seven years into the civil war. But, the conflict remains complex, as the U.S. and coalition forces continue to work to eradicate remnants of ISIS and Israel becomes increasingly concerned over Iran’s military presence in neighboring Syria.

Susan Hayward on Advancing Religious Freedom

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 02 Aug 2018 19:56:10 +0000

Following last week’s Ministerial to Advance Religious Freedom at the U.S. Department of State, Rev. Susan Hayward discusses the worldwide uptick in religious discrimination in recent years—which particularly impacts minority communities—and how religion shapes conflict and peace around the world.

Moeed Yusuf on Pakistan’s Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 25 Jul 2018 16:39:17 +0000

On Pakistan’s Election Day, Moeed Yusuf analyzes the significance of the country holding its third democratic election in a row amid a persistent power imbalance between the military and civilian spheres. Concerning U.S. interests, Yusuf says American engagement with Pakistan must go beyond Afghanistan issues, which Islamabad does not view as a top priority.

Nancy Lindborg on Libyan Migration into Europe

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 18 Jul 2018 20:19:07 +0000

U.S. Institute of Peace President, Nancy Lindborg discusses the flow of Libyans migrating to Europe and explains the core issues that are pushing them to leave their homes and risk their lives.

Ezra Shearer on a Year as a Peace Teacher

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 11 Jul 2018 20:54:42 +0000

After completing an academic year as one of four USIP Peace Teachers, Ezra Shearer discusses his experience engaging, empowering, and challenging students on how to mitigate conflict. Building negotiation and communication skills, says Shearer, a teacher at Sentinel High School in Missoula, Montana, is a critical life skill for students.

Ambassador Bill Taylor on Russia and NATO

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 05 Jul 2018 15:40:28 +0000

Ahead of the highly anticipated Trump-Putin meeting and the NATO summit in Europe later this month, Ambassador Taylor discusses the key issues that will be on the agenda at both, including Russian meddling in U.S. elections and Moscow’s aggressive actions in Europe as well as NATO members’ progress as it relates to U.S. concerns over burden-sharing.

Susan Stigant on South Sudan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 28 Jun 2018 15:31:40 +0000

Can South Sudan—the world’s youngest country—find peace? USIP’s Susan Stigant discusses the country’s political crisis and how its exacerbated by the outgrowth of opposition groups, millions of displaced citizens, and other complex challenges to restoring stability. Nevertheless, Stigant explains that peace is possible with U.S. leadership.

Steve Hege on Colombia’s Election

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 21 Jun 2018 21:14:16 +0000

Following a peaceful run-off election in Colombia, Steve Hege shares his analysis on the victory of right-wing candidate Ivan Duque over leftist Gustavo Petro. At the top of Duque’s agenda, according to Hege, will be amending the peace accord with the FARC, resuming more aggressive drug eradication programs, increasing security, and strengthening the U.S.-Colombia relationship.

Scott Worden on the Taliban in Afghanistan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 13 Jun 2018 21:33:00 +0000

A temporary cease-fire between the Afghan government and the Taliban to mark the end of Ramadan may offer an opportunity to pursue a more ambitious political solution to end the conflict in Afghanistan, says USIP’s Scott Worden. While there is a chance that the cease-fire—the first since the war began in 2001—will be fleeting, as cease-fires are fragile by nature, it is an important trust-building measure. Combined with Afghanistan’s neighbors recently expressing their desire for an end to the stalemate, the cease-fire could be the first step to a more enduring peace.

Frank Aum on the North Korea Summit

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 06 Jun 2018 19:59:59 +0000

Just days out from the historic U.S. – North Korea Summit, Frank Aum reflects on pitfalls that previous administrations struggled with, and shares his thoughts about the Trump administration’s approach to North Korea.

Sarhang Hamasaeed on Iraq's Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 30 May 2018 17:52:30 +0000

Following the surprise win by controversial Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr and his Sairoon coalition in Iraq’s May 12 parliamentary elections, a new coalition government has yet to form. USIP’s Sarhang Hamasaeed analyzes what led to al-Sadr’s victory, low voter turnout at the polls, the state of the political process in Iraq, and Iraqis’ expectations for meaningful reform from the next government.

Moeed Yusuf on the Nuclear Stalemate in South Asia

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 24 May 2018 13:10:41 +0000

While Iran and North Korea dominate Western headlines, tensions between Pakistan and India—two nuclear states that have grown unpredictable—are at the highest levels in over a decade, threatening a potential catastrophic outcome, says Moeed Yusuf. He explains why India and Pakistan depend upon the United States, China, and other powers to work in concert to de-escalate the long running Kashmir conflict. However, the resurgence of great power competition has left Pakistan and India to solve the crisis on their own.

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen on the Tumult Between Israelis and Palestinians

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 17 May 2018 16:54:26 +0000

A confluence of factors this week led to heightened tensions in Israel and the Palestinian territories. Israel celebrated its 70th anniversary, the United States officially moved its embassy to Jerusalem, and protests in Gaza led to levels of violence not seen in several years. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen shares her analysis and discusses the perfect storm of events leading to the tumult between Israelis and Palestinians and explains why Middle East peace remains a generational goal.

Bill Taylor on Russian Elections and Putin's Longevity

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 09 May 2018 18:48:06 +0000

As Russia’s Vladimir Putin begins his fourth term. Bill Taylor discusses Putin’s political longevity, his power over the media and Russia's desire to be relevant.

Nancy Lindborg on Nigeria's Central Role in Africa

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 02 May 2018 18:48:00 +0000

Fresh from her USIP delegation to Nigeria, Nancy Lindborg explains Nigeria’s importance to Africa and the United States. Lindborg discusses the critical on-the-ground work happening to prevent violence and underscores the importance of Nigerian governors to countering Boko Haram.

Osama Gharizi on U.S. Objectives in Syria

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 18 Apr 2018 20:02:56 +0000

From Lebanon, Osama Gharizi shares his analysis about the clarity of U.S. objectives after retaliatory missile strikes targeting the Assad regime’s suspected chemical weapons facilities. Gharizi says these strikes sent a signal to Assad and his allies that there are limits to U.S. and coalition intervention in Syria. In turn, these limits strengthen Russia, Turkey, and Iran’s roles as the diplomatic arbiters to negotiate a peace deal. Separately, Gharizi addresses the risks associated with the suggestion of setting up an Arab force in Syria that could create further obscurity in terms of U.S. intent and objectives versus those of Arab countries forming such a force.

Steve Hege on Colombia's Progress Towards Peace

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 11 Apr 2018 15:18:39 +0000

Leaders from the Western Hemisphere absent Venezuela’s President Maduro will gather for the 8th Summit of the Americas in Peru later this week. Vice President Pence following the summit will travel on to Colombia. Steve Hege explains a range of issues involving Colombia from U.S. bilateral relations, upcoming elections, peace plan implementation and reforms, and the strains on public infrastructure and services as a result of an exodus of Venezuelan refugees.

Mike Yaffe on Iraq and Syria Event

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 04 Apr 2018 20:35:53 +0000

Following USIP’s event “Iraq and Syria: Views from the U.S. Administration, Military Leaders and the Region,” Mike Yaffe provides key takeaways from the panel featuring CENTCOM Commander General Votel, USAID Administrator Green, and Special Presidential Envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS McGurk. "Iraq and Syria are complex and starkly different from one another," says Yaffe, "but the key goals are the same: concentrate on defeating ISIS and work by, with, and through local people to stabilize each country."

Ambassador Bill Taylor on the Alleged Russian Use of Chemical Weapons

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 28 Mar 2018 18:59:28 +0000

The alleged Russian use of a chemical weapon against a former Russian spy turned double agent in the United Kingdom led to scores of Russian diplomats being sent packing from the United States and Western Europe. Ambassador Taylor discusses the strong showing of unity among Western nations, and its effect on Russian intelligence gathering efforts and additional U.S. and international economic sanctions.

Dr. Kathleen Kuehnast on International Women's Month

U.S. Institute of Peace — Thu, 22 Mar 2018 18:00:14 +0000

For International Women’s Month, Kathleen Kuehnast underscores the importance of women’s contribution to peace and security. Dr. Kuehnast argues that the new millennium, whether through U.N. Security Council Resolution 1325 or less formal engagement via social media, has empowered women to take a greater role in peace building.

Johnny Walsh on U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 14 Mar 2018 19:26:42 +0000

Secretary of Defense Mattis’s visit to Kabul, Afghanistan, follows a spike in activity from all parties proffering peace talks. Johnny Walsh shares his thoughts about the U.S. strategy to bolster the Afghan government’s position to enter into peace talks with the Taliban.

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen on Prime Minister Netanyahu's Visit to the U.S.

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 07 Mar 2018 17:27:18 +0000

This week in Washington, Prime Minister Netanyahu successfully shifted the optics from mounting domestic pressure. Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen shares her analysis about Netanyahu’s warm reception at the AIPAC conference and his White House meeting focused on Iran. The conversation continues with Kurtzer-Ellenbogen explaining the latest hurdles for Middle East Peace and the anticipation for the Trump administration’s Middle East Peace Plan.

Nancy Lindborg on the State of Play in Iraq

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 28 Feb 2018 18:02:43 +0000

Just days after returning from Iraq, Nancy Lindborg shares her impression of the improved landscape in Iraq after ISIS’ brutal occupation. Lindborg describes the unifying sense of Iraqi pride following ISIS’s ouster, but she cautions that if the government fails to become more inclusive and accountable, Iraq could fall back into a highly sectarian environment.

Frank Aum on the Korean Peninsula After the Olympic Games

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 20 Feb 2018 19:10:00 +0000

Frank Aum discusses the Korean Peninsula, and whether there is a pathway to keep the peaceful momentum going after the Olympic Games. Aum also tells us about the effect of international sanctions on North Korea and China’s interests.

Moeed Yusuf on U.S./Pakistan Relations

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 14 Feb 2018 15:55:00 +0000

Moeed Yusuf argues that U.S.-Pakistan relations that are approaching a breaking point where the two countries seem to be acting more as adversaries than partners given the heightened sense of mistrust. Yusuf shares observations from his recent Pakistan trip, and describes the contingency planning and unpredictability Pakistan may exhibit with continued U.S. pressure.

Scott Worden on the Effects of the Taliban and ISIS Attacks in Afghanistan

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 07 Feb 2018 17:47:00 +0000

Fresh off his trip to Kabul, Afghanistan, Scott Worden shares his analysis of the string of recent Taliban and ISIS attacks. Worden discusses how these attacks are meant to destabilize the Ghani government, and how 2019 elections could be affected by Taliban and ISIS pressures.

Maria Stephan on Iranian Protests

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 31 Jan 2018 17:46:00 +0000

Maria Stephan discusses non-violent action in Iran and the diversity among participants in the recent protests. Stephan tackles the impact of cyber suppression on protesters and how "head scarf protests" have fared.

Ambassador Bill Taylor on the Escalation of Conflict in Ukraine

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 24 Jan 2018 17:45:00 +0000

Ambassador Bill Taylor updates us on Ukraine’s efforts to upgrade its military with U.S. assistance to defend eastern Ukraine from Russian-led militias. Taylor weighs in on U.S. efforts to find a diplomatic solution to ease Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine, the effect of U.S. and European sanctions on Putin, and the recognition of the U.S. National Defense and National Security Strategies that Russia is a top threat.

Mona Yacoubian on the Changing Dynamics in Syria

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 17 Jan 2018 17:44:00 +0000

Mona Yacoubian gives us a glimpse into the changing dynamics in Syria, addressing Assad’s grip on power, Russia’s support, and Iran and Turkey’s roles and interests. Yacoubian also addresses the rising tensions between Turkey and the United States over the Kurds.

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen on Vice President Mike Pence's Visit to the Middle East

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 10 Jan 2018 15:01:00 +0000

Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen previews Vice President Mike Pence's upcoming visit to the Middle East following the Trump administration’s announcement recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. Kurtzer-Ellenbogen also addresses the importance of the trip and the expectations for the visit to neighboring Arab nations.

Ambassador Bill Taylor Remembers the Arab Spring

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 20 Dec 2017 15:26:00 +0000

Ambassador Bill Taylor reflects on the significance of the Arab Spring and the changes brought about by the movement, including the democratic transition in Tunisia, the major political changes in Egypt and the role of the United States in these type of events.

Frank Aum on How to Deal with North Korea

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 06 Dec 2017 15:27:00 +0000

Frank Aum discusses the dangers of war with North Korea, offers possible solutions to the crisis and tells us what he thinks the chances are for diplomacy and negotiation.

Nancy Lindborg Discusses the Rohingya Crisis in Burma

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 22 Nov 2017 17:43:00 +0000

Having just returned from Burma talks about the USIP delegation she led to Burma, and the complexities facing the country. What can we expect from a nation contending with 22 ethnic armed groups, clashes with the Rohingya, and a continuing transition from military rule to the doorstep of democracy.

Scott Worden on the Asia Foundation's 13th Annual Survey of the Afghan People

U.S. Institute of Peace — Fri, 17 Nov 2017 15:29:00 +0000

On the heels of the Asia Foundation's 13th annual Survey of the Afghan People, Scott Worden discusses key findings, trend lines, reasons for optimism and important points of concern that stem from the comprehensive survey.

Mona Yacoubian Discusses the Liberation of Raqqa

U.S. Institute of Peace — Fri, 03 Nov 2017 17:41:00 +0000

Mona Yacoubian tells us about the liberation of Raqqa, Syria, and explains the necessity of continued U.S. involvement in Raqqa.

Carla Koppell on U.N. Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security

U.S. Institute of Peace — Fri, 27 Oct 2017 17:39:00 +0000

Carla Koppell discusses U.N. Security Council Resolution 1325 for the protection of women and girls, and gives her analysis about the work still needs to be done to include women in peace negotiations.

Neil Kritz Discusses the Pending Hamas and Fatah Agreement

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 25 Oct 2017 17:38:00 +0000

Neil Kritz previews the pending agreement to heal a decade of division between Hamas and Fatah, and explains what effects the reconciliation might have on the larger Middle East Peace Process.

Sarhang Hamasaeed Discusses Recent Events in Kirkuk

U.S. Institute of Peace — Fri, 20 Oct 2017 17:36:00 +0000

Sarhang Hamasaeed reviews a tense week in which the Iraqi Army and Kurdish forces clashed in the disputed area of Kirkuk. With ISIS driven out of Kirkuk, renewed tensions dating back to 2014 have re-emerged between the Iraqi Army and Popular Mobilization Forces Hamasaeed tells us why a political dialogue process is central to protecting minorities, and avoiding Shia and Sunni clashes.

Nancy Lindborg on Negotiations with North Korea

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 18 Oct 2017 17:35:00 +0000

USIP President Nancy Lindborg tells us about the challenges presented by North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, and discusses her own experiences travelling to North Korea.

Jonas Claes on Liberia and Kenya's Elections

U.S. Institute of Peace — Fri, 13 Oct 2017 17:34:00 +0000

Jonas Claes joins us to talk about Liberia’s election and the significance of the country's first peaceful transfer of power since 1944. Claes also lays out the challenges for the Kenyan election taking place in October following the country’s Supreme Court nullification of the earlier September election.

Sarhang Hamasaeed on the Kurdish Referendum

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 27 Sep 2017 17:32:00 +0000

Sarhang Hamasaeed tells us why the results of the non-binding Kurdistan independence referendum matter, and explains the need to prevent an escalation of tensions that could lead to violence with Shia militias, the Iraqi Army and Kurdish Peshmerga forces.

Ann-Louise Colgan on the International Day of Peace

U.S. Institute of Peace — Wed, 20 Sep 2017 17:27:00 +0000

Ann-Louise Colgan discusses the International Day of Peace and USIP’s Third Annual Peace Day Challenge.

Ambassador Derek Mitchell on Myanmar

U.S. Institute of Peace — Tue, 12 Sep 2017 16:17:00 +0000

Derek Mitchell talks to us about the current humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, and addresses the international and domestic constituencies that Aung San Suu Kyi must navigate as the crisis continues.