History of the Future Castos https://www.independent.org/ Why do societies repeat the same mistakes? Why do economic fallacies keep resurfacing generation after generation? And what can the past teach us about the future we’re entering now? History of the Future is a podcast exploring these questions (and so much more) by unpacking how historical events, economic systems, political movements and technological revolutions continue to shape the modern world. Hosted by Caleb Petitt and Jonathan Hofer, the show combines economic history, current affairs, cultural commentary and emerging technology conversations to help younger audiences better understand the world they will lead. Unlike other discussions of these issues, this show aims to connect historical patterns with future consequences in a way that feels intellectually sharp, culturally aware and highly accessible. Wed, 07 Oct 2026 09:30:00 +0000 en © 2026 799904 US https://episodes.castos.com/62264211cb7160-73495263/images/TIS-2-2-2-1400x1400.png History of the Future https://www.independent.org/ Why do societies repeat the same mistakes? Why do economic fallacies keep resurfacing generation after generation? And what can the past teach us about the future we’re entering now? History of the Future is a podcast exploring these questions (and so much more) by unpacking how historical events, economic systems, political movements and technological revolutions continue to shape the modern world. Hosted by Caleb Petitt and Jonathan Hofer, the show combines economic history, current affairs, cultural commentary and emerging technology conversations to help younger audiences better understand the world they will lead. Unlike other discussions of these issues, this show aims to connect historical patterns with future consequences in a way that feels intellectually sharp, culturally aware and highly accessible. Independent Institute episodic Why do societies repeat the same mistakes? Why do economic fallacies keep resurfacing generation after generation? And what can the past teach us about the future we’re entering now? History of the Future is a podcast exploring these questions (and so much more) by unpacking how historical events, economic systems, political movements and technological revolutions continue to shape the modern world. Hosted by Caleb Petitt and Jonathan Hofer, the show combines economic history, current affairs, cultural commentary and emerging technology conversations to help younger audiences better understand the world they will lead. Unlike other discussions of these issues, this show aims to connect historical patterns with future consequences in a way that feels intellectually sharp, culturally aware and highly accessible. Independent Institute digital@independent.org false https://feeds.castos.com/mw42z yes <![CDATA[Six Political Crises That Still Shape America Today]]> Wed, 07 Oct 2026 09:30:00 +0000 Independent Institute https://permalink.castos.com/podcast/71155/episode/2645971 https://history-of-the-future.castos.com/episodes/six-political-crises-that-still-shape-america-today What if the political turmoil we see today isn't unprecedented, but part of a much longer American pattern?

In this episode of History of the Future, hosts Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt explore six historical crises that echo contemporary debates around corruption, state-federal power, elections, presidential transparency, tariffs, and territorial expansion. From the Crédit Mobilier railroad scandal and the Nullification Crisis to the contested election that ended Reconstruction, Woodrow Wilson's concealed illness, and the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, they examine how political incentives and power struggles have repeatedly produced consequences that outlast the crises themselves. 

The episode also explores how territorial expansion intensified America's divisions over slavery and helped set the stage for the Civil War. The result is a historical perspective on why today's crises can feel unprecedented, and what history can teach us about them. 

What You Will Learn:

  • Why political corruption today looks suspiciously like the railroad schemes of the 1870s
  • How state-federal conflicts have nearly triggered armed conflict without a single shot fired
  • The corrupt bargain that ended Reconstruction and shaped the next century
  • Why presidential health cover-ups aren't modern
  • How tariff wars have sparked actual economic damage before
  • Why territorial expansion almost always comes with hidden costs

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

Chapters

  • (00:00:02) - Intro and movie chat
  • (00:01:38) - Episode theme: historical echoes of today's politics
  • (00:02:29) - Political corruption: Trump meme coin debacle
  • (00:06:00) - Political corruption: Credit Mobilier scandal
  • (00:10:30) - State vs federal authority: Texas razor wire standoff
  • (00:14:04) - State vs federal authority: Nullification crisis of 1832
  • (00:17:55) - Independent Institute sponsor break
  • (00:18:48) - Party manipulation: 2020 election aftermath and January 6th
  • (00:20:42) - Party manipulation: The corrupt bargain of 1877
  • (00:26:31) - Voter suppression and telegram subpoenas in 1876 election
  • (00:28:01) - Presidential health cover-ups: Biden's cognitive health
  • (00:29:05) - Presidential health cover-ups: Woodrow Wilson's stroke
  • (00:32:11) - Modern congressional health concealment examples
  • (00:32:51) - Tariffs: Liberation Day tariffs
  • (00:34:04) - Tariffs: Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act
  • (00:37:10) - Territorial expansion: Greenland and Guantanamo Bay
  • (00:40:08) - Territorial expansion: Polk and the Mexican-American War
  • (00:42:44) - Closing and next episode teaser
]]> false What if the political turmoil we see today isn't unprecedented, but part of a much longer American pattern?

In this episode of History of the Future, hosts Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt explore six historical crises that echo contemporary debates around corruption, state-federal power, elections, presidential transparency, tariffs, and territorial expansion. From the Crédit Mobilier railroad scandal and the Nullification Crisis to the contested election that ended Reconstruction, Woodrow Wilson's concealed illness, and the Smoot-Hawley tariffs, they examine how political incentives and power struggles have repeatedly produced consequences that outlast the crises themselves. 

The episode also explores how territorial expansion intensified America's divisions over slavery and helped set the stage for the Civil War. The result is a historical perspective on why today's crises can feel unprecedented, and what history can teach us about them. 

What You Will Learn:

  • Why political corruption today looks suspiciously like the railroad schemes of the 1870s
  • How state-federal conflicts have nearly triggered armed conflict without a single shot fired
  • The corrupt bargain that ended Reconstruction and shaped the next century
  • Why presidential health cover-ups aren't modern
  • How tariff wars have sparked actual economic damage before
  • Why territorial expansion almost always comes with hidden costs

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

]]> 00:43:54 <![CDATA[When Your Phone Becomes a General Warrant]]> Wed, 02 Sep 2026 11:45:00 +0000 Independent Institute https://permalink.castos.com/podcast/71155/episode/2594282 https://history-of-the-future.castos.com/episodes/when-your-phone-becomes-a-general-warrant What if the technology making your phone "smart" is actually making you vulnerable to mass surveillance?

In this episode of History of the Future, hosts Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt examine how modern geofence warrants are reviving a centuries-old conflict over government surveillance. They trace the origins of the Fourth Amendment’s protection against “general warrants” to colonial America and the landmark 1761 case involving John Wilkes, showing how fears of broad, suspicionless searches echo in today’s digital world. 

The hosts explain how geofence warrants allow police to obtain location data from every device within a defined area, potentially sweeping innocent people into criminal investigations before identifying any actual suspect. They also explore why smartphones make opting out of location tracking increasingly difficult, while challenging the outdated third-party doctrine and debating the “bailment theory” of digital privacy. 

What You Will Learn:

  • Why "general warrants" terrified the American founders
  • The John Wilkes story
  • How geofence warrants actually work in three sketchy steps
  • Why turning off location tracking essentially breaks your smartphone
  • The "bailment theory" of privacy: why your data is like a valet-parked car
  • How to think critically about any new surveillance tech

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

Chapters

  • (00:00:02) - Historical of the Future
  • (00:01:19) - The Supreme Court's Decision on Geofence Watches
  • (00:03:25) - Google vs. Virginia Police
  • (00:05:08) - NSA's Surveillance of Americans
  • (00:06:46) - General Wills vs. Massachusetts
  • (00:12:01) - William Wilkes on the Fourth Amendment
  • (00:18:54) - Geofence Warrant and General Waivers
  • (00:22:35) - Do You Own Your Data?
  • (00:33:14) - Geofence warrants: Should They Be Illegal?
  • (00:37:10) - Geofence: A Turning Point
  • (00:40:42) - History of the Future
]]> full false What if the technology making your phone "smart" is actually making you vulnerable to mass surveillance?

In this episode of History of the Future, hosts Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt examine how modern geofence warrants are reviving a centuries-old conflict over government surveillance. They trace the origins of the Fourth Amendment’s protection against “general warrants” to colonial America and the landmark 1761 case involving John Wilkes, showing how fears of broad, suspicionless searches echo in today’s digital world. 

The hosts explain how geofence warrants allow police to obtain location data from every device within a defined area, potentially sweeping innocent people into criminal investigations before identifying any actual suspect. They also explore why smartphones make opting out of location tracking increasingly difficult, while challenging the outdated third-party doctrine and debating the “bailment theory” of digital privacy. 

What You Will Learn:

  • Why "general warrants" terrified the American founders
  • The John Wilkes story
  • How geofence warrants actually work in three sketchy steps
  • Why turning off location tracking essentially breaks your smartphone
  • The "bailment theory" of privacy: why your data is like a valet-parked car
  • How to think critically about any new surveillance tech

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

]]> 00:41:10 <![CDATA[The AI Revolution Has Happened Before]]> Wed, 05 Aug 2026 10:00:00 +0000 Independent Institute https://permalink.castos.com/podcast/71155/episode/2555142 https://history-of-the-future.castos.com/episodes/the-ai-revolution-has-happened-before AI, economics, economic history, the Industrial Revolution, automation, jobs, innovation, and the future of work are at the heart of the inaugural episode of History of the Future. Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt explore what history can teach us about AI, looking at past technological revolutions—from the Industrial Revolution to the internet—to explain why today's AI boom may be more familiar than it seems.

They examine how technological change reshapes labor markets, why fears of job displacement often overlook the creation of new opportunities, and what the "Engels' pause" reveals about short-term disruption and long-term prosperity.

Jonathan and Caleb also discuss AI data centers, infrastructure, AI regulation, productivity, lower-skilled workers, and the economic forces shaping the future of artificial intelligence. It's a timely, historically grounded look at one of the most important technological and economic transformations of our time.

What You Will Learn:

  • Why AI data centers prove the private sector can still build ambitious infrastructure when government gets out of the way
  • How the Luddites weren't anti-technology purists but workers protecting livelihoods
  • The "Engels' pause" framework
  • Why low-skilled workers are actually best positioned to benefit from AI
  • Why the jobs that disappear are visible while new job creation remains invisible
  • The difference between regulating AI by computational power (Biden's approach) versus regulating by end-use cases (Trump's approach)

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

Chapters

  • (00:00:00) - Why AI Data Centers Are Good for the US Economy
  • (00:00:38) - History of the Future: Artificial Intelligence
  • (00:02:08) - History of the Future
  • (00:02:53) - Are You A Soccer Fan?
  • (00:03:48) - Air Conditioning During the World Cup
  • (00:13:58) - What Is AI?
  • (00:15:36) - Do we Need a Luddite Revolution?
  • (00:22:23) - Karl Marx vs Hegel
  • (00:29:32) - Are You Going to Lose Your Job to AI?
  • (00:35:14) - Leah Palskavili's work on the gig economy
  • (00:37:25) - Exogenous and endogenous growth models
  • (00:40:35) - The History of Artificial Intelligence
  • (00:42:15) - Disruptions in the Economy
  • (00:46:20) - WSJD: Could AI Increase Inequality?
  • (00:52:58) - Artificial Intelligence and the Future
  • (00:54:26) - Favorite Movie That Employs AI
  • (00:56:28) - Are There Any AIs In The Odyssey?
  • (00:58:53) - History of the Future
]]> full 1 false AI, economics, economic history, the Industrial Revolution, automation, jobs, innovation, and the future of work are at the heart of the inaugural episode of History of the Future. Jonathan Hofer and Caleb Petitt explore what history can teach us about AI, looking at past technological revolutions—from the Industrial Revolution to the internet—to explain why today's AI boom may be more familiar than it seems.

They examine how technological change reshapes labor markets, why fears of job displacement often overlook the creation of new opportunities, and what the "Engels' pause" reveals about short-term disruption and long-term prosperity.

Jonathan and Caleb also discuss AI data centers, infrastructure, AI regulation, productivity, lower-skilled workers, and the economic forces shaping the future of artificial intelligence. It's a timely, historically grounded look at one of the most important technological and economic transformations of our time.

What You Will Learn:

  • Why AI data centers prove the private sector can still build ambitious infrastructure when government gets out of the way
  • How the Luddites weren't anti-technology purists but workers protecting livelihoods
  • The "Engels' pause" framework
  • Why low-skilled workers are actually best positioned to benefit from AI
  • Why the jobs that disappear are visible while new job creation remains invisible
  • The difference between regulating AI by computational power (Biden's approach) versus regulating by end-use cases (Trump's approach)

Jonathan Hofer is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, focusing on public policy, political science, privacy, and surveillance. With expertise spanning technology regulation, economic policy, and historical analysis, he brings a multidisciplinary lens to understanding how emerging technologies like AI reshape society.

Caleb Petitt is a Research Associate at the Independent Institute with a background in economic history. He specializes in analyzing how technological disruption reshapes labor markets and economic growth, drawing on historical parallels from the Industrial Revolution to contemporary technological shifts.

Episode Resources:

]]> 00:59:24 <![CDATA[History of the Future Trailer]]> Mon, 03 Aug 2026 10:00:00 +0000 Independent Institute https://permalink.castos.com/podcast/71155/episode/2553545 https://history-of-the-future.castos.com/episodes/history-of-the-future-trailer Why do the same ideas keep coming back? 

History of the Future connects history, economics, and today's biggest headlines to better understand what's next.

Coming Wednesday!

Chapters

  • (00:00:03) - History of the Future
]]> false Why do the same ideas keep coming back? 

History of the Future connects history, economics, and today's biggest headlines to better understand what's next.

Coming Wednesday!

]]> 00:01:08